KEYW | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
KEYW | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
| Mean Absolute Error (2024-09-24 to 2024-10-23) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| Low (F) |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
6 |
5 |
6 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.35 |
0.54 |
0.31 |
0.24 |
AE = Absolute value of Forecast - Obs; Lower values = a more accurate forecast overall
| Mean Bias (2024-09-24 to 2024-10-23) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Low (F) |
1 |
1 |
0 |
-1 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
-5 |
-5 |
-5 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.23 |
0.46 |
0.18 |
0.04 |
Bias = Forecast - Obs
Positive values: Forecast too high; Negative values: Forecast too low
Adjust by subtracting forecast - error
| Yesterday (2024-10-23) |
Obs |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
85 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
0 |
| Low (F) |
78 |
-1 |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
15 |
-3 |
-4 |
-3 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.16 |
NBM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NBM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NBM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NBM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NBM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2024-10-23 |
85 |
84 |
-1 |
78 |
77 |
-1 |
15 |
12 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-10-22 |
86 |
85 |
-1 |
78 |
77 |
-1 |
16 |
14 |
-2 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
| 2024-10-21 |
85 |
85 |
0 |
76 |
77 |
1 |
17 |
16 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2024-10-20 |
84 |
84 |
0 |
76 |
77 |
1 |
16 |
15 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-10-19 |
85 |
85 |
0 |
76 |
77 |
1 |
22 |
20 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
| 2024-10-18 |
78 |
84 |
6 |
73 |
76 |
3 |
18 |
21 |
3 |
0.61 |
0.20 |
-0.41 |
| 2024-10-17 |
82 |
83 |
1 |
74 |
74 |
0 |
19 |
18 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-10-15 |
86 |
86 |
0 |
78 |
79 |
1 |
11 |
8 |
-3 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
| 2024-10-14 |
88 |
86 |
-2 |
80 |
79 |
-1 |
10 |
9 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-10-13 |
86 |
87 |
1 |
78 |
79 |
1 |
11 |
6 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.76 |
0.76 |
| 2024-10-12 |
82 |
87 |
5 |
78 |
79 |
1 |
15 |
12 |
-3 |
0.02 |
1.03 |
1.01 |
| 2024-10-11 |
85 |
87 |
2 |
77 |
78 |
1 |
15 |
13 |
-2 |
0.31 |
0.00 |
-0.31 |
| 2024-10-10 |
87 |
88 |
1 |
81 |
82 |
1 |
16 |
21 |
5 |
0.00 |
0.09 |
0.09 |
| 2024-10-09 |
88 |
90 |
2 |
81 |
82 |
1 |
35 |
24 |
-11 |
0.09 |
0.83 |
0.74 |
| 2024-10-08 |
88 |
89 |
1 |
80 |
81 |
1 |
22 |
15 |
-7 |
0.36 |
0.21 |
-0.15 |
| 2024-10-07 |
87 |
88 |
1 |
77 |
79 |
2 |
27 |
12 |
-15 |
1.04 |
2.22 |
1.18 |
| 2024-10-06 |
87 |
88 |
1 |
78 |
80 |
2 |
23 |
9 |
-14 |
0.69 |
1.03 |
0.34 |
| 2024-10-05 |
89 |
88 |
-1 |
81 |
81 |
0 |
23 |
9 |
-14 |
0.02 |
1.55 |
1.53 |
| 2024-10-04 |
88 |
89 |
1 |
82 |
82 |
0 |
17 |
10 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.45 |
0.45 |
| 2024-10-03 |
89 |
89 |
0 |
80 |
82 |
2 |
19 |
10 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
| 2024-10-02 |
88 |
89 |
1 |
81 |
82 |
1 |
10 |
6 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-10-01 |
88 |
90 |
2 |
84 |
82 |
-2 |
11 |
9 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-09-30 |
89 |
90 |
1 |
83 |
82 |
-1 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
| 2024-09-29 |
89 |
90 |
1 |
84 |
83 |
-1 |
12 |
8 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-09-28 |
88 |
90 |
2 |
83 |
82 |
-1 |
13 |
10 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
| 2024-09-27 |
88 |
89 |
1 |
79 |
82 |
3 |
22 |
15 |
-7 |
0.22 |
0.67 |
0.45 |
| 2024-09-26 |
88 |
89 |
1 |
82 |
81 |
-1 |
39 |
29 |
-10 |
0.02 |
0.69 |
0.67 |
| 2024-09-25 |
87 |
89 |
2 |
79 |
81 |
2 |
31 |
24 |
-7 |
0.18 |
1.24 |
1.06 |
| 2024-09-24 |
90 |
91 |
1 |
79 |
83 |
4 |
27 |
15 |
-12 |
1.24 |
0.38 |
-0.86 |
GFS Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High GFS (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low GFS (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind GFS (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip GFS (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2024-10-23 |
85 |
84 |
-1 |
78 |
76 |
-2 |
15 |
11 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-10-22 |
86 |
84 |
-2 |
78 |
76 |
-2 |
16 |
12 |
-4 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
| 2024-10-21 |
85 |
84 |
-1 |
76 |
75 |
-1 |
17 |
13 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2024-10-20 |
84 |
84 |
0 |
76 |
75 |
-1 |
16 |
12 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-10-19 |
85 |
83 |
-2 |
76 |
75 |
-1 |
22 |
18 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
| 2024-10-18 |
78 |
82 |
4 |
73 |
73 |
0 |
18 |
19 |
1 |
0.61 |
0.50 |
-0.11 |
| 2024-10-17 |
82 |
82 |
0 |
74 |
74 |
0 |
19 |
17 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-10-16 |
84 |
85 |
1 |
76 |
78 |
2 |
18 |
11 |
-7 |
0.03 |
0.20 |
0.17 |
| 2024-10-15 |
86 |
86 |
0 |
78 |
79 |
1 |
11 |
7 |
-4 |
0.01 |
0.65 |
0.64 |
| 2024-10-14 |
88 |
85 |
-3 |
80 |
79 |
-1 |
10 |
7 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-10-13 |
86 |
86 |
0 |
78 |
79 |
1 |
11 |
6 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2024-10-12 |
82 |
85 |
3 |
78 |
78 |
0 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.02 |
0.85 |
0.83 |
| 2024-10-11 |
85 |
86 |
1 |
77 |
78 |
1 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.31 |
0.05 |
-0.26 |
| 2024-10-10 |
87 |
87 |
0 |
81 |
80 |
-1 |
16 |
22 |
6 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
| 2024-10-09 |
88 |
88 |
0 |
81 |
84 |
3 |
35 |
27 |
-8 |
0.09 |
0.85 |
0.76 |
| 2024-10-08 |
88 |
88 |
0 |
80 |
82 |
2 |
22 |
19 |
-3 |
0.36 |
1.55 |
1.19 |
| 2024-10-07 |
87 |
87 |
0 |
77 |
81 |
4 |
27 |
15 |
-12 |
1.04 |
3.05 |
2.01 |
| 2024-10-06 |
87 |
88 |
1 |
78 |
82 |
4 |
23 |
10 |
-13 |
0.69 |
1.20 |
0.51 |
| 2024-10-05 |
89 |
87 |
-2 |
81 |
82 |
1 |
23 |
9 |
-14 |
0.02 |
0.90 |
0.88 |
| 2024-10-04 |
88 |
89 |
1 |
82 |
82 |
0 |
17 |
10 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.50 |
0.50 |
| 2024-10-03 |
89 |
90 |
1 |
80 |
82 |
2 |
19 |
10 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
| 2024-10-02 |
88 |
89 |
1 |
81 |
82 |
1 |
10 |
7 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-10-01 |
88 |
90 |
2 |
84 |
84 |
0 |
11 |
9 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-09-30 |
89 |
90 |
1 |
83 |
83 |
0 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-09-29 |
89 |
90 |
1 |
84 |
84 |
0 |
12 |
8 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-09-28 |
88 |
90 |
2 |
83 |
83 |
0 |
13 |
14 |
1 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2024-09-27 |
88 |
88 |
0 |
79 |
84 |
5 |
22 |
20 |
-2 |
0.22 |
1.55 |
1.33 |
| 2024-09-26 |
88 |
87 |
-1 |
82 |
83 |
1 |
39 |
34 |
-5 |
0.02 |
2.35 |
2.33 |
| 2024-09-25 |
87 |
86 |
-1 |
79 |
82 |
3 |
31 |
34 |
3 |
0.18 |
3.40 |
3.22 |
| 2024-09-24 |
90 |
90 |
0 |
79 |
84 |
5 |
27 |
16 |
-11 |
1.24 |
0.40 |
-0.84 |
NAM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NAM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NAM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NAM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NAM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2024-10-23 |
85 |
84 |
-1 |
78 |
76 |
-2 |
15 |
12 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-10-22 |
86 |
84 |
-2 |
78 |
75 |
-3 |
16 |
12 |
-4 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
| 2024-10-21 |
85 |
84 |
-1 |
76 |
75 |
-1 |
17 |
12 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2024-10-20 |
84 |
83 |
-1 |
76 |
75 |
-1 |
16 |
10 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-10-19 |
85 |
84 |
-1 |
76 |
76 |
0 |
22 |
18 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2024-10-18 |
78 |
83 |
5 |
73 |
73 |
0 |
18 |
17 |
-1 |
0.61 |
0.10 |
-0.51 |
| 2024-10-17 |
82 |
81 |
-1 |
74 |
74 |
0 |
19 |
17 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-10-16 |
84 |
83 |
-1 |
76 |
76 |
0 |
18 |
13 |
-5 |
0.03 |
0.25 |
0.22 |
| 2024-10-15 |
86 |
85 |
-1 |
78 |
77 |
-1 |
11 |
6 |
-5 |
0.01 |
0.25 |
0.24 |
| 2024-10-14 |
88 |
84 |
-4 |
80 |
77 |
-3 |
10 |
8 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-10-13 |
86 |
86 |
0 |
78 |
79 |
1 |
11 |
9 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.75 |
0.75 |
| 2024-10-12 |
82 |
85 |
3 |
78 |
78 |
0 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.02 |
0.15 |
0.13 |
| 2024-10-11 |
85 |
86 |
1 |
77 |
77 |
0 |
15 |
13 |
-2 |
0.31 |
0.00 |
-0.31 |
| 2024-10-10 |
87 |
88 |
1 |
81 |
82 |
1 |
16 |
29 |
13 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2024-10-09 |
88 |
88 |
0 |
81 |
84 |
3 |
35 |
30 |
-5 |
0.09 |
0.85 |
0.76 |
| 2024-10-08 |
88 |
88 |
0 |
80 |
81 |
1 |
22 |
18 |
-4 |
0.36 |
0.45 |
0.09 |
| 2024-10-07 |
87 |
86 |
-1 |
77 |
80 |
3 |
27 |
12 |
-15 |
1.04 |
1.75 |
0.71 |
| 2024-10-06 |
87 |
87 |
0 |
78 |
80 |
2 |
23 |
10 |
-13 |
0.69 |
1.25 |
0.56 |
| 2024-10-05 |
89 |
87 |
-2 |
81 |
80 |
-1 |
23 |
6 |
-17 |
0.02 |
0.30 |
0.28 |
| 2024-10-04 |
88 |
87 |
-1 |
82 |
81 |
-1 |
17 |
8 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.30 |
0.30 |
| 2024-10-03 |
89 |
88 |
-1 |
80 |
81 |
1 |
19 |
8 |
-11 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2024-10-02 |
88 |
89 |
1 |
81 |
80 |
-1 |
10 |
6 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-10-01 |
88 |
89 |
1 |
84 |
82 |
-2 |
11 |
9 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-09-30 |
89 |
90 |
1 |
83 |
82 |
-1 |
15 |
11 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2024-09-29 |
89 |
90 |
1 |
84 |
82 |
-2 |
12 |
9 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-09-28 |
88 |
90 |
2 |
83 |
81 |
-2 |
13 |
12 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-09-27 |
88 |
87 |
-1 |
79 |
80 |
1 |
22 |
21 |
-1 |
0.22 |
0.80 |
0.58 |
| 2024-09-26 |
88 |
85 |
-3 |
82 |
81 |
-1 |
39 |
33 |
-6 |
0.02 |
1.95 |
1.93 |
| 2024-09-25 |
87 |
87 |
0 |
79 |
80 |
1 |
31 |
31 |
-0 |
0.18 |
0.85 |
0.67 |
| 2024-09-24 |
90 |
91 |
1 |
79 |
83 |
4 |
27 |
15 |
-12 |
1.24 |
0.00 |
-1.24 |
Go back to Douglas' WxChallenge main page.
This page was last updated: 2024-10-24 07:00 AM Central