KMSY | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
KMSY | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
| Mean Absolute Error (2024-12-31 to 2025-01-29) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
3 |
2 |
3 |
9 |
| Low (F) |
2 |
2 |
3 |
9 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
6 |
4 |
3 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.09 |
0.14 |
0.10 |
0.24 |
AE = Absolute value of Forecast - Obs; Lower values = a more accurate forecast overall
| Mean Bias (2024-12-31 to 2025-01-29) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
4 |
| Low (F) |
0 |
0 |
-1 |
5 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
-5 |
-4 |
-2 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
-0.05 |
0.05 |
-0.04 |
0.01 |
Bias = Forecast - Obs
Positive values: Forecast too high; Negative values: Forecast too low
Adjust by subtracting forecast - error
| Yesterday (2025-01-29) |
Obs |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
71 |
-3 |
-2 |
-7 |
-8 |
| Low (F) |
49 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
-2 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
14 |
-8 |
-7 |
-7 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.15 |
NBM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NBM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NBM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NBM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NBM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2025-01-29 |
71 |
68 |
-3 |
49 |
52 |
3 |
14 |
6 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-28 |
60 |
63 |
3 |
50 |
49 |
-1 |
8 |
4 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-27 |
68 |
65 |
-3 |
53 |
53 |
0 |
12 |
6 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
| 2025-01-26 |
69 |
67 |
-2 |
51 |
46 |
-5 |
17 |
8 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-25 |
57 |
56 |
-1 |
28 |
33 |
5 |
17 |
7 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-24 |
53 |
48 |
-5 |
32 |
30 |
-2 |
13 |
7 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-23 |
48 |
45 |
-3 |
21 |
25 |
4 |
8 |
5 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-22 |
34 |
38 |
4 |
22 |
21 |
-1 |
12 |
9 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-21 |
38 |
35 |
-3 |
26 |
28 |
2 |
21 |
17 |
-4 |
0.24 |
0.60 |
0.36 |
| 2025-01-20 |
41 |
42 |
1 |
30 |
29 |
-1 |
17 |
12 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-01-19 |
57 |
51 |
-6 |
35 |
34 |
-1 |
22 |
15 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-18 |
71 |
71 |
0 |
57 |
53 |
-4 |
18 |
10 |
-8 |
0.44 |
0.14 |
-0.30 |
| 2025-01-17 |
66 |
64 |
-2 |
39 |
43 |
4 |
22 |
8 |
-14 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
| 2025-01-16 |
64 |
60 |
-4 |
43 |
45 |
2 |
10 |
6 |
-4 |
0.09 |
0.08 |
-0.01 |
| 2025-01-15 |
61 |
57 |
-4 |
49 |
46 |
-3 |
8 |
10 |
2 |
0.11 |
0.00 |
-0.11 |
| 2025-01-14 |
52 |
54 |
2 |
43 |
40 |
-3 |
14 |
10 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-13 |
61 |
56 |
-5 |
48 |
47 |
-1 |
15 |
13 |
-2 |
0.39 |
0.48 |
0.09 |
| 2025-01-12 |
56 |
60 |
4 |
34 |
37 |
3 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
1.64 |
0.61 |
-1.03 |
| 2025-01-11 |
48 |
49 |
1 |
35 |
37 |
2 |
15 |
11 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-10 |
60 |
64 |
4 |
41 |
43 |
2 |
23 |
14 |
-9 |
1.01 |
0.64 |
-0.37 |
| 2025-01-09 |
51 |
53 |
2 |
38 |
35 |
-3 |
17 |
10 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
| 2025-01-08 |
47 |
50 |
3 |
33 |
35 |
2 |
13 |
10 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-07 |
46 |
48 |
2 |
34 |
33 |
-1 |
15 |
11 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-06 |
56 |
49 |
-7 |
35 |
36 |
1 |
21 |
15 |
-6 |
0.03 |
0.05 |
0.02 |
| 2025-01-05 |
77 |
75 |
-2 |
56 |
59 |
3 |
23 |
15 |
-8 |
0.71 |
0.42 |
-0.29 |
| 2025-01-04 |
63 |
64 |
1 |
53 |
51 |
-2 |
17 |
11 |
-6 |
0.01 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
| 2025-01-03 |
67 |
66 |
-1 |
53 |
52 |
-1 |
10 |
7 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-02 |
63 |
63 |
0 |
49 |
46 |
-3 |
11 |
8 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-01 |
61 |
61 |
0 |
50 |
47 |
-3 |
13 |
9 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-31 |
76 |
72 |
-4 |
56 |
54 |
-2 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
GFS Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High GFS (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low GFS (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind GFS (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip GFS (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2025-01-29 |
71 |
69 |
-2 |
49 |
52 |
3 |
14 |
7 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-28 |
60 |
63 |
3 |
50 |
52 |
2 |
8 |
5 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-27 |
68 |
65 |
-3 |
53 |
54 |
1 |
12 |
7 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2025-01-26 |
69 |
64 |
-5 |
51 |
50 |
-1 |
17 |
11 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-25 |
57 |
55 |
-2 |
28 |
34 |
6 |
17 |
9 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-24 |
53 |
48 |
-5 |
32 |
32 |
0 |
13 |
10 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-23 |
48 |
40 |
-8 |
21 |
22 |
1 |
8 |
6 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-22 |
34 |
32 |
-2 |
22 |
21 |
-1 |
12 |
8 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-21 |
38 |
35 |
-3 |
26 |
25 |
-1 |
21 |
15 |
-6 |
0.24 |
0.85 |
0.61 |
| 2025-01-20 |
41 |
45 |
4 |
30 |
26 |
-4 |
17 |
13 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-01-19 |
57 |
53 |
-4 |
35 |
34 |
-1 |
22 |
17 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-18 |
71 |
73 |
2 |
57 |
56 |
-1 |
18 |
13 |
-5 |
0.44 |
0.10 |
-0.34 |
| 2025-01-17 |
66 |
65 |
-1 |
39 |
42 |
3 |
22 |
9 |
-13 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-01-16 |
64 |
60 |
-4 |
43 |
46 |
3 |
10 |
7 |
-3 |
0.09 |
0.05 |
-0.04 |
| 2025-01-15 |
61 |
58 |
-3 |
49 |
43 |
-6 |
8 |
10 |
2 |
0.11 |
0.25 |
0.14 |
| 2025-01-14 |
52 |
55 |
3 |
43 |
43 |
0 |
14 |
11 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-13 |
61 |
57 |
-4 |
48 |
49 |
1 |
15 |
15 |
0 |
0.39 |
1.50 |
1.11 |
| 2025-01-12 |
56 |
58 |
2 |
34 |
38 |
4 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
1.64 |
0.80 |
-0.84 |
| 2025-01-11 |
48 |
49 |
1 |
35 |
38 |
3 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-10 |
60 |
58 |
-2 |
41 |
43 |
2 |
23 |
21 |
-2 |
1.01 |
1.75 |
0.74 |
| 2025-01-09 |
51 |
52 |
1 |
38 |
34 |
-4 |
17 |
14 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2025-01-08 |
47 |
49 |
2 |
33 |
34 |
1 |
13 |
9 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-07 |
46 |
48 |
2 |
34 |
32 |
-2 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-06 |
56 |
54 |
-2 |
35 |
36 |
1 |
21 |
17 |
-4 |
0.03 |
0.05 |
0.02 |
| 2025-01-05 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
56 |
60 |
4 |
23 |
20 |
-3 |
0.71 |
0.50 |
-0.21 |
| 2025-01-04 |
63 |
64 |
1 |
53 |
51 |
-2 |
17 |
13 |
-4 |
0.01 |
0.10 |
0.09 |
| 2025-01-03 |
67 |
67 |
0 |
53 |
49 |
-4 |
10 |
8 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-02 |
63 |
62 |
-1 |
49 |
46 |
-3 |
11 |
7 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-01 |
61 |
61 |
0 |
50 |
48 |
-2 |
13 |
9 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-31 |
76 |
74 |
-2 |
56 |
51 |
-5 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
NAM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NAM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NAM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NAM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NAM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2025-01-29 |
71 |
64 |
-7 |
49 |
50 |
1 |
14 |
7 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-28 |
60 |
60 |
0 |
50 |
47 |
-3 |
8 |
7 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-27 |
68 |
67 |
-1 |
53 |
51 |
-2 |
12 |
9 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
| 2025-01-26 |
69 |
66 |
-3 |
51 |
49 |
-2 |
17 |
14 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2025-01-25 |
57 |
58 |
1 |
28 |
34 |
6 |
17 |
9 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-24 |
53 |
52 |
-1 |
32 |
33 |
1 |
13 |
12 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-23 |
48 |
49 |
1 |
21 |
26 |
5 |
8 |
9 |
1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-22 |
34 |
43 |
9 |
22 |
23 |
1 |
12 |
9 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-21 |
38 |
32 |
-6 |
26 |
26 |
0 |
21 |
23 |
2 |
0.24 |
0.80 |
0.56 |
| 2025-01-20 |
41 |
42 |
1 |
30 |
27 |
-3 |
17 |
14 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-01-19 |
57 |
50 |
-7 |
35 |
36 |
1 |
22 |
18 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-18 |
71 |
74 |
3 |
57 |
52 |
-5 |
18 |
15 |
-3 |
0.44 |
0.00 |
-0.44 |
| 2025-01-17 |
66 |
66 |
0 |
39 |
42 |
3 |
22 |
12 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2025-01-16 |
64 |
60 |
-4 |
43 |
43 |
0 |
10 |
7 |
-3 |
0.09 |
0.00 |
-0.09 |
| 2025-01-15 |
61 |
55 |
-6 |
49 |
43 |
-6 |
8 |
11 |
3 |
0.11 |
0.10 |
-0.01 |
| 2025-01-14 |
52 |
57 |
5 |
43 |
42 |
-1 |
14 |
11 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-13 |
61 |
53 |
-8 |
48 |
45 |
-3 |
15 |
17 |
2 |
0.39 |
0.40 |
0.01 |
| 2025-01-12 |
56 |
59 |
3 |
34 |
40 |
6 |
15 |
12 |
-3 |
1.64 |
0.95 |
-0.69 |
| 2025-01-11 |
48 |
50 |
2 |
35 |
37 |
2 |
15 |
14 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-10 |
60 |
58 |
-2 |
41 |
41 |
0 |
23 |
22 |
-1 |
1.01 |
0.85 |
-0.16 |
| 2025-01-09 |
51 |
46 |
-5 |
38 |
34 |
-4 |
17 |
16 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
| 2025-01-08 |
47 |
49 |
2 |
33 |
33 |
0 |
13 |
10 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-07 |
46 |
47 |
1 |
34 |
32 |
-2 |
15 |
15 |
0 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-06 |
56 |
49 |
-7 |
35 |
34 |
-1 |
21 |
19 |
-2 |
0.03 |
0.05 |
0.02 |
| 2025-01-05 |
77 |
80 |
3 |
56 |
60 |
4 |
23 |
20 |
-3 |
0.71 |
0.05 |
-0.66 |
| 2025-01-04 |
63 |
61 |
-2 |
53 |
48 |
-5 |
17 |
13 |
-4 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
| 2025-01-03 |
67 |
66 |
-1 |
53 |
49 |
-4 |
10 |
8 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-02 |
63 |
61 |
-2 |
49 |
43 |
-6 |
11 |
8 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-01-01 |
61 |
61 |
0 |
50 |
45 |
-5 |
13 |
10 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-31 |
76 |
76 |
0 |
56 |
53 |
-3 |
15 |
11 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
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This page was last updated: 2025-01-30 07:00 AM Central