KJLN | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
KJLN | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
| Mean Absolute Error (2026-05-05 to 2026-06-03) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
0 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
| Low (F) |
3 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
5 |
6 |
5 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.32 |
0.21 |
0.21 |
0.24 |
AE = Absolute value of Forecast - Obs; Lower values = a more accurate forecast overall
| Mean Bias (2026-05-05 to 2026-06-03) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
0 |
0 |
-2 |
-1 |
| Low (F) |
3 |
0 |
0 |
-1 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
-5 |
-6 |
-5 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.32 |
0.12 |
0.06 |
0.10 |
Bias = Forecast - Obs
Positive values: Forecast too high; Negative values: Forecast too low
Adjust by subtracting forecast - error
| Yesterday (2026-06-03) |
Obs |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
83 |
0 |
-1 |
0 |
0 |
| Low (F) |
64 |
3 |
-2 |
-1 |
-2 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
11 |
-5 |
-3 |
-1 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.00 |
0.32 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.21 |
NBM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NBM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NBM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NBM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NBM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2026-05-05 |
65 |
65 |
0 |
46 |
49 |
3 |
22 |
17 |
-5 |
0.25 |
0.57 |
0.32 |
GFS Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High GFS (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low GFS (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind GFS (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip GFS (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2026-06-03 |
83 |
82 |
-1 |
64 |
62 |
-2 |
11 |
8 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-06-02 |
86 |
85 |
-1 |
67 |
66 |
-1 |
13 |
10 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-06-01 |
89 |
93 |
4 |
70 |
72 |
2 |
19 |
9 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-31 |
89 |
90 |
1 |
67 |
69 |
2 |
17 |
12 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-05-30 |
88 |
86 |
-2 |
68 |
68 |
0 |
32 |
9 |
-23 |
0.31 |
1.60 |
1.29 |
| 2026-05-29 |
86 |
79 |
-7 |
68 |
65 |
-3 |
9 |
5 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
| 2026-05-28 |
78 |
75 |
-3 |
70 |
66 |
-4 |
15 |
8 |
-7 |
0.02 |
0.65 |
0.63 |
| 2026-05-27 |
84 |
85 |
1 |
64 |
62 |
-2 |
12 |
6 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
| 2026-05-26 |
79 |
83 |
4 |
57 |
62 |
5 |
10 |
6 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2026-05-25 |
84 |
87 |
3 |
56 |
59 |
3 |
10 |
5 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-24 |
80 |
84 |
4 |
57 |
58 |
1 |
9 |
6 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-23 |
78 |
76 |
-2 |
58 |
60 |
2 |
21 |
8 |
-13 |
0.13 |
0.95 |
0.82 |
| 2026-05-22 |
76 |
72 |
-4 |
62 |
61 |
-1 |
8 |
6 |
-2 |
0.47 |
0.85 |
0.38 |
| 2026-05-21 |
69 |
73 |
4 |
57 |
55 |
-2 |
9 |
6 |
-3 |
0.36 |
1.15 |
0.79 |
| 2026-05-20 |
59 |
60 |
1 |
53 |
54 |
1 |
13 |
10 |
-3 |
0.01 |
0.10 |
0.09 |
| 2026-05-19 |
77 |
72 |
-5 |
55 |
57 |
2 |
16 |
13 |
-3 |
1.82 |
0.45 |
-1.37 |
| 2026-05-18 |
88 |
85 |
-3 |
75 |
73 |
-2 |
27 |
24 |
-3 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
| 2026-05-17 |
85 |
86 |
1 |
70 |
69 |
-1 |
22 |
22 |
0 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-16 |
87 |
87 |
0 |
71 |
69 |
-2 |
28 |
16 |
-12 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-15 |
86 |
85 |
-1 |
66 |
65 |
-1 |
27 |
17 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-05-14 |
79 |
78 |
-1 |
50 |
50 |
0 |
22 |
16 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-13 |
78 |
79 |
1 |
51 |
56 |
5 |
13 |
8 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-12 |
79 |
81 |
2 |
51 |
52 |
1 |
18 |
16 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-11 |
78 |
77 |
-1 |
41 |
46 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-10 |
70 |
71 |
1 |
44 |
52 |
8 |
17 |
11 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-05-09 |
81 |
83 |
2 |
52 |
51 |
-1 |
11 |
6 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-08 |
78 |
78 |
0 |
54 |
51 |
-3 |
20 |
15 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-05-07 |
68 |
71 |
3 |
41 |
39 |
-2 |
15 |
11 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-06 |
62 |
60 |
-2 |
43 |
43 |
0 |
17 |
9 |
-8 |
0.01 |
0.15 |
0.14 |
| 2026-05-05 |
65 |
60 |
-5 |
46 |
48 |
2 |
22 |
12 |
-10 |
0.25 |
0.85 |
0.60 |
NAM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NAM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NAM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NAM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NAM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2026-06-03 |
83 |
83 |
0 |
64 |
63 |
-1 |
11 |
10 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-06-02 |
86 |
84 |
-2 |
67 |
66 |
-1 |
13 |
9 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-06-01 |
89 |
91 |
2 |
70 |
71 |
1 |
19 |
10 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-31 |
89 |
86 |
-3 |
67 |
67 |
0 |
17 |
12 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.40 |
0.40 |
| 2026-05-30 |
88 |
86 |
-2 |
68 |
66 |
-2 |
32 |
11 |
-21 |
0.31 |
0.00 |
-0.31 |
| 2026-05-29 |
86 |
79 |
-7 |
68 |
64 |
-4 |
9 |
6 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.80 |
0.80 |
| 2026-05-28 |
78 |
78 |
0 |
70 |
67 |
-3 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.02 |
0.85 |
0.83 |
| 2026-05-27 |
84 |
82 |
-2 |
64 |
60 |
-4 |
12 |
6 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-05-26 |
79 |
78 |
-1 |
57 |
60 |
3 |
10 |
7 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2026-05-25 |
84 |
83 |
-1 |
56 |
58 |
2 |
10 |
6 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-24 |
80 |
80 |
0 |
57 |
54 |
-3 |
9 |
5 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-23 |
78 |
75 |
-3 |
58 |
58 |
0 |
21 |
8 |
-13 |
0.13 |
0.40 |
0.27 |
| 2026-05-22 |
76 |
70 |
-6 |
62 |
57 |
-5 |
8 |
7 |
-1 |
0.47 |
0.30 |
-0.17 |
| 2026-05-21 |
69 |
72 |
3 |
57 |
54 |
-3 |
9 |
6 |
-3 |
0.36 |
1.00 |
0.64 |
| 2026-05-20 |
59 |
64 |
5 |
53 |
54 |
1 |
13 |
8 |
-5 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
| 2026-05-19 |
77 |
70 |
-7 |
55 |
54 |
-1 |
16 |
14 |
-2 |
1.82 |
0.00 |
-1.82 |
| 2026-05-18 |
88 |
86 |
-2 |
75 |
70 |
-5 |
27 |
22 |
-5 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
| 2026-05-17 |
85 |
85 |
0 |
70 |
69 |
-1 |
22 |
20 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-16 |
87 |
85 |
-2 |
71 |
70 |
-1 |
28 |
19 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-15 |
86 |
84 |
-2 |
66 |
65 |
-1 |
27 |
14 |
-13 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-05-14 |
79 |
77 |
-2 |
50 |
52 |
2 |
22 |
15 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-13 |
78 |
77 |
-1 |
51 |
54 |
3 |
13 |
9 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-12 |
79 |
80 |
1 |
51 |
53 |
2 |
18 |
15 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-11 |
78 |
76 |
-2 |
41 |
46 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-10 |
70 |
66 |
-4 |
44 |
50 |
6 |
17 |
11 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
| 2026-05-09 |
81 |
80 |
-1 |
52 |
49 |
-3 |
11 |
7 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-08 |
78 |
72 |
-6 |
54 |
53 |
-1 |
20 |
18 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2026-05-07 |
68 |
70 |
2 |
41 |
39 |
-2 |
15 |
13 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-05-06 |
62 |
57 |
-5 |
43 |
42 |
-1 |
17 |
10 |
-7 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
| 2026-05-05 |
65 |
62 |
-3 |
46 |
51 |
5 |
22 |
12 |
-10 |
0.25 |
1.20 |
0.95 |
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This page was last updated: 2026-06-04 07:00 AM Central