KSAT | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
KSAT | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
| Mean Absolute Error (2025-03-03 to 2025-04-01) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
2 |
3 |
4 |
10 |
| Low (F) |
3 |
3 |
4 |
8 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
8 |
5 |
7 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.08 |
0.11 |
0.05 |
0.11 |
AE = Absolute value of Forecast - Obs; Lower values = a more accurate forecast overall
| Mean Bias (2025-03-03 to 2025-04-01) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
-1 |
-1 |
-3 |
-9 |
| Low (F) |
0 |
-1 |
-3 |
-4 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
-8 |
-5 |
-7 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
-0.01 |
0.07 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
Bias = Forecast - Obs
Positive values: Forecast too high; Negative values: Forecast too low
Adjust by subtracting forecast - error
| Yesterday (2025-04-01) |
Obs |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
87 |
-3 |
-3 |
-5 |
-9 |
| Low (F) |
65 |
-4 |
-4 |
-9 |
-10 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
23 |
-9 |
-2 |
-7 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.07 |
NBM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NBM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NBM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NBM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NBM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2025-04-01 |
87 |
84 |
-3 |
65 |
61 |
-4 |
23 |
14 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-31 |
87 |
89 |
2 |
66 |
66 |
0 |
14 |
9 |
-5 |
0.33 |
0.00 |
-0.33 |
| 2025-03-30 |
82 |
86 |
4 |
69 |
68 |
-1 |
14 |
5 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-03-29 |
89 |
87 |
-2 |
67 |
64 |
-3 |
17 |
9 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-03-28 |
78 |
76 |
-2 |
64 |
62 |
-2 |
14 |
8 |
-6 |
0.05 |
0.82 |
0.77 |
| 2025-03-27 |
69 |
71 |
2 |
63 |
63 |
0 |
14 |
11 |
-3 |
0.43 |
0.79 |
0.36 |
| 2025-03-26 |
83 |
83 |
0 |
64 |
63 |
-1 |
27 |
11 |
-16 |
0.81 |
0.15 |
-0.66 |
| 2025-03-25 |
91 |
91 |
0 |
63 |
63 |
0 |
15 |
7 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-24 |
87 |
86 |
-1 |
56 |
62 |
6 |
10 |
8 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-23 |
89 |
86 |
-3 |
62 |
64 |
2 |
24 |
9 |
-15 |
0.31 |
0.00 |
-0.31 |
| 2025-03-22 |
85 |
85 |
0 |
54 |
55 |
1 |
21 |
15 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-21 |
79 |
79 |
0 |
48 |
44 |
-4 |
20 |
13 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-20 |
72 |
73 |
1 |
42 |
44 |
2 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-19 |
81 |
80 |
-1 |
56 |
56 |
0 |
24 |
15 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-18 |
89 |
86 |
-3 |
60 |
56 |
-4 |
25 |
17 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-17 |
84 |
84 |
0 |
44 |
48 |
4 |
20 |
14 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-16 |
82 |
80 |
-2 |
47 |
49 |
2 |
19 |
8 |
-11 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-15 |
79 |
79 |
0 |
60 |
57 |
-3 |
31 |
18 |
-13 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-14 |
96 |
88 |
-8 |
62 |
60 |
-2 |
19 |
13 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-13 |
91 |
91 |
0 |
53 |
58 |
5 |
14 |
8 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-12 |
93 |
89 |
-4 |
61 |
56 |
-5 |
17 |
12 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-11 |
84 |
82 |
-2 |
44 |
47 |
3 |
20 |
11 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-10 |
77 |
77 |
0 |
40 |
42 |
2 |
13 |
6 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-09 |
68 |
66 |
-2 |
43 |
43 |
0 |
22 |
14 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-08 |
89 |
83 |
-6 |
50 |
53 |
3 |
27 |
14 |
-13 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-07 |
85 |
85 |
0 |
64 |
59 |
-5 |
18 |
8 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-03-06 |
78 |
76 |
-2 |
45 |
46 |
1 |
24 |
16 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-05 |
75 |
73 |
-2 |
54 |
50 |
-4 |
20 |
12 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-04 |
77 |
77 |
0 |
56 |
61 |
5 |
31 |
20 |
-11 |
0.06 |
0.06 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-03 |
79 |
79 |
0 |
67 |
64 |
-3 |
21 |
14 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
GFS Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High GFS (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low GFS (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind GFS (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip GFS (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2025-04-01 |
87 |
84 |
-3 |
65 |
61 |
-4 |
23 |
21 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-31 |
87 |
92 |
5 |
66 |
68 |
2 |
14 |
9 |
-5 |
0.33 |
0.00 |
-0.33 |
| 2025-03-30 |
82 |
84 |
2 |
69 |
68 |
-1 |
14 |
7 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-03-29 |
89 |
88 |
-1 |
67 |
63 |
-4 |
17 |
13 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-03-28 |
78 |
71 |
-7 |
64 |
59 |
-5 |
14 |
6 |
-8 |
0.05 |
0.25 |
0.20 |
| 2025-03-27 |
69 |
64 |
-5 |
63 |
60 |
-3 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
0.43 |
1.55 |
1.12 |
| 2025-03-26 |
83 |
77 |
-6 |
64 |
63 |
-1 |
27 |
12 |
-15 |
0.81 |
2.25 |
1.44 |
| 2025-03-25 |
91 |
92 |
1 |
63 |
63 |
0 |
15 |
11 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-24 |
87 |
82 |
-5 |
56 |
60 |
4 |
10 |
9 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-23 |
89 |
84 |
-5 |
62 |
66 |
4 |
24 |
10 |
-14 |
0.31 |
0.00 |
-0.31 |
| 2025-03-22 |
85 |
87 |
2 |
54 |
56 |
2 |
21 |
19 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-21 |
79 |
80 |
1 |
48 |
43 |
-5 |
20 |
16 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-20 |
72 |
74 |
2 |
42 |
42 |
0 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-19 |
81 |
83 |
2 |
56 |
52 |
-4 |
24 |
18 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-18 |
89 |
86 |
-3 |
60 |
57 |
-3 |
25 |
23 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-17 |
84 |
84 |
0 |
44 |
43 |
-1 |
20 |
19 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-16 |
82 |
82 |
0 |
47 |
47 |
0 |
19 |
11 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-15 |
79 |
80 |
1 |
60 |
54 |
-6 |
31 |
25 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-14 |
96 |
90 |
-6 |
62 |
64 |
2 |
19 |
15 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-13 |
91 |
92 |
1 |
53 |
53 |
0 |
14 |
9 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-12 |
93 |
92 |
-1 |
61 |
58 |
-3 |
17 |
19 |
2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-11 |
84 |
82 |
-2 |
44 |
45 |
1 |
20 |
13 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-10 |
77 |
77 |
0 |
40 |
42 |
2 |
13 |
8 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-09 |
68 |
64 |
-4 |
43 |
47 |
4 |
22 |
18 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-08 |
89 |
83 |
-6 |
50 |
53 |
3 |
27 |
19 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-07 |
85 |
86 |
1 |
64 |
57 |
-7 |
18 |
11 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-03-06 |
78 |
76 |
-2 |
45 |
42 |
-3 |
24 |
21 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-05 |
75 |
75 |
0 |
54 |
46 |
-8 |
20 |
13 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-04 |
77 |
78 |
1 |
56 |
54 |
-2 |
31 |
25 |
-6 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
-0.01 |
| 2025-03-03 |
79 |
76 |
-3 |
67 |
65 |
-2 |
21 |
18 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
NAM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NAM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NAM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NAM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NAM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2025-04-01 |
87 |
82 |
-5 |
65 |
56 |
-9 |
23 |
16 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-31 |
87 |
84 |
-3 |
66 |
59 |
-7 |
14 |
10 |
-4 |
0.33 |
0.00 |
-0.33 |
| 2025-03-30 |
82 |
83 |
1 |
69 |
67 |
-2 |
14 |
7 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-03-29 |
89 |
86 |
-3 |
67 |
63 |
-4 |
17 |
11 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-03-28 |
78 |
71 |
-7 |
64 |
60 |
-4 |
14 |
6 |
-8 |
0.05 |
0.25 |
0.20 |
| 2025-03-27 |
69 |
70 |
1 |
63 |
64 |
1 |
14 |
13 |
-1 |
0.43 |
1.05 |
0.62 |
| 2025-03-26 |
83 |
83 |
0 |
64 |
62 |
-2 |
27 |
11 |
-16 |
0.81 |
0.75 |
-0.06 |
| 2025-03-25 |
91 |
90 |
-1 |
63 |
62 |
-1 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-24 |
87 |
81 |
-6 |
56 |
63 |
7 |
10 |
10 |
-0 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-23 |
89 |
84 |
-5 |
62 |
62 |
0 |
24 |
10 |
-14 |
0.31 |
0.00 |
-0.31 |
| 2025-03-22 |
85 |
80 |
-5 |
54 |
55 |
1 |
21 |
15 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-21 |
79 |
76 |
-3 |
48 |
43 |
-5 |
20 |
14 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-20 |
72 |
70 |
-2 |
42 |
41 |
-1 |
15 |
8 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-19 |
81 |
77 |
-4 |
56 |
51 |
-5 |
24 |
17 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-18 |
89 |
83 |
-6 |
60 |
58 |
-2 |
25 |
18 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-17 |
84 |
82 |
-2 |
44 |
43 |
-1 |
20 |
16 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-16 |
82 |
78 |
-4 |
47 |
43 |
-4 |
19 |
7 |
-12 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-15 |
79 |
77 |
-2 |
60 |
49 |
-11 |
31 |
21 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-14 |
96 |
88 |
-8 |
62 |
56 |
-6 |
19 |
20 |
1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-13 |
91 |
90 |
-1 |
53 |
49 |
-4 |
14 |
8 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-12 |
93 |
81 |
-12 |
61 |
56 |
-5 |
17 |
13 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-11 |
84 |
80 |
-4 |
44 |
46 |
2 |
20 |
13 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-10 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
40 |
43 |
3 |
13 |
5 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-09 |
68 |
64 |
-4 |
43 |
43 |
0 |
22 |
18 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-08 |
89 |
82 |
-7 |
50 |
48 |
-2 |
27 |
17 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-07 |
85 |
82 |
-3 |
64 |
58 |
-6 |
18 |
10 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-03-06 |
78 |
73 |
-5 |
45 |
44 |
-1 |
24 |
16 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-05 |
75 |
73 |
-2 |
54 |
45 |
-9 |
20 |
14 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-04 |
77 |
79 |
2 |
56 |
55 |
-1 |
31 |
28 |
-3 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
-0.01 |
| 2025-03-03 |
79 |
80 |
1 |
67 |
63 |
-4 |
21 |
16 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Go back to Douglas' WxChallenge main page.
This page was last updated: 2025-04-02 07:00 AM Central