KMSY | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
KMSY | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
| Mean Absolute Error (2024-11-15 to 2024-12-14) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
2 |
2 |
2 |
7 |
| Low (F) |
3 |
3 |
3 |
7 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
5 |
4 |
3 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.06 |
0.16 |
0.10 |
0.22 |
AE = Absolute value of Forecast - Obs; Lower values = a more accurate forecast overall
| Mean Bias (2024-11-15 to 2024-12-14) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
0 |
1 |
-2 |
-1 |
| Low (F) |
1 |
1 |
-2 |
-1 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
-5 |
-4 |
-3 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.01 |
0.12 |
0.07 |
-0.01 |
Bias = Forecast - Obs
Positive values: Forecast too high; Negative values: Forecast too low
Adjust by subtracting forecast - error
| Yesterday (2024-12-14) |
Obs |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
74 |
-4 |
-2 |
-3 |
-9 |
| Low (F) |
58 |
-1 |
1 |
-1 |
-9 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
17 |
-7 |
-6 |
-2 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.14 |
NBM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NBM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NBM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NBM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NBM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2024-12-14 |
74 |
70 |
-4 |
58 |
57 |
-1 |
17 |
10 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-13 |
68 |
64 |
-4 |
51 |
47 |
-4 |
19 |
11 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-12 |
58 |
58 |
0 |
39 |
43 |
4 |
14 |
9 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-11 |
58 |
57 |
-1 |
41 |
46 |
5 |
21 |
14 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
| 2024-12-10 |
77 |
73 |
-4 |
58 |
58 |
0 |
17 |
12 |
-5 |
0.60 |
0.88 |
0.28 |
| 2024-12-09 |
76 |
71 |
-5 |
68 |
65 |
-3 |
13 |
8 |
-5 |
0.25 |
0.74 |
0.49 |
| 2024-12-08 |
71 |
72 |
1 |
53 |
52 |
-1 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
-0.01 |
| 2024-12-07 |
55 |
59 |
4 |
44 |
42 |
-2 |
12 |
8 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2024-12-06 |
52 |
52 |
0 |
40 |
38 |
-2 |
16 |
12 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-05 |
69 |
66 |
-3 |
47 |
49 |
2 |
19 |
12 |
-7 |
1.27 |
0.65 |
-0.62 |
| 2024-12-04 |
69 |
68 |
-1 |
41 |
46 |
5 |
12 |
7 |
-5 |
0.01 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
| 2024-12-03 |
58 |
61 |
3 |
41 |
46 |
5 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-02 |
61 |
63 |
2 |
44 |
47 |
3 |
14 |
8 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-01 |
64 |
64 |
0 |
41 |
47 |
6 |
9 |
6 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-30 |
58 |
60 |
2 |
44 |
43 |
-1 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-29 |
58 |
59 |
1 |
48 |
49 |
1 |
16 |
12 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2024-11-28 |
73 |
73 |
0 |
54 |
56 |
2 |
16 |
12 |
-4 |
0.01 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
| 2024-11-27 |
78 |
77 |
-1 |
55 |
59 |
4 |
13 |
10 |
-3 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
| 2024-11-26 |
69 |
71 |
2 |
57 |
62 |
5 |
10 |
8 |
-2 |
0.03 |
0.05 |
0.02 |
| 2024-11-25 |
81 |
79 |
-2 |
57 |
61 |
4 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.04 |
0.00 |
-0.04 |
| 2024-11-24 |
74 |
76 |
2 |
48 |
52 |
4 |
11 |
7 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-23 |
67 |
67 |
0 |
46 |
48 |
2 |
8 |
6 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-22 |
64 |
64 |
0 |
49 |
49 |
0 |
12 |
9 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-21 |
67 |
66 |
-1 |
53 |
50 |
-3 |
17 |
10 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-20 |
72 |
72 |
0 |
59 |
55 |
-4 |
19 |
14 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-19 |
81 |
81 |
0 |
68 |
67 |
-1 |
20 |
9 |
-11 |
1.84 |
1.73 |
-0.11 |
| 2024-11-18 |
83 |
82 |
-1 |
70 |
68 |
-2 |
22 |
13 |
-9 |
0.12 |
0.36 |
0.24 |
| 2024-11-17 |
81 |
80 |
-1 |
65 |
65 |
0 |
14 |
10 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-16 |
77 |
77 |
0 |
56 |
58 |
2 |
12 |
9 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-15 |
73 |
72 |
-1 |
60 |
57 |
-3 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
GFS Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High GFS (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low GFS (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind GFS (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip GFS (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2024-12-14 |
74 |
72 |
-2 |
58 |
59 |
1 |
17 |
11 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-13 |
68 |
64 |
-4 |
51 |
47 |
-4 |
19 |
12 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-12 |
58 |
59 |
1 |
39 |
40 |
1 |
14 |
8 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-11 |
58 |
59 |
1 |
41 |
46 |
5 |
21 |
17 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-10 |
77 |
75 |
-2 |
58 |
62 |
4 |
17 |
17 |
-0 |
0.60 |
1.55 |
0.95 |
| 2024-12-09 |
76 |
74 |
-2 |
68 |
62 |
-6 |
13 |
8 |
-5 |
0.25 |
2.65 |
2.40 |
| 2024-12-08 |
71 |
71 |
0 |
53 |
55 |
2 |
15 |
11 |
-4 |
0.02 |
0.00 |
-0.02 |
| 2024-12-07 |
55 |
60 |
5 |
44 |
40 |
-4 |
12 |
8 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2024-12-06 |
52 |
54 |
2 |
40 |
41 |
1 |
16 |
12 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-05 |
69 |
67 |
-2 |
47 |
51 |
4 |
19 |
12 |
-7 |
1.27 |
1.00 |
-0.27 |
| 2024-12-04 |
69 |
68 |
-1 |
41 |
47 |
6 |
12 |
9 |
-3 |
0.01 |
0.10 |
0.09 |
| 2024-12-03 |
58 |
61 |
3 |
41 |
44 |
3 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-02 |
61 |
63 |
2 |
44 |
46 |
2 |
14 |
9 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-01 |
64 |
65 |
1 |
41 |
43 |
2 |
9 |
6 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-30 |
58 |
59 |
1 |
44 |
42 |
-2 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-29 |
58 |
60 |
2 |
48 |
48 |
0 |
16 |
13 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2024-11-28 |
73 |
72 |
-1 |
54 |
56 |
2 |
16 |
12 |
-4 |
0.01 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
| 2024-11-27 |
78 |
77 |
-1 |
55 |
61 |
6 |
13 |
10 |
-3 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
| 2024-11-26 |
69 |
73 |
4 |
57 |
62 |
5 |
10 |
7 |
-3 |
0.03 |
0.00 |
-0.03 |
| 2024-11-25 |
81 |
80 |
-1 |
57 |
61 |
4 |
15 |
7 |
-8 |
0.04 |
0.00 |
-0.04 |
| 2024-11-24 |
74 |
76 |
2 |
48 |
52 |
4 |
11 |
8 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-23 |
67 |
66 |
-1 |
46 |
45 |
-1 |
8 |
5 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-22 |
64 |
66 |
2 |
49 |
46 |
-3 |
12 |
10 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-21 |
67 |
68 |
1 |
53 |
47 |
-6 |
17 |
9 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-20 |
72 |
75 |
3 |
59 |
53 |
-6 |
19 |
16 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-19 |
81 |
81 |
0 |
68 |
68 |
0 |
20 |
10 |
-10 |
1.84 |
1.70 |
-0.14 |
| 2024-11-18 |
83 |
85 |
2 |
70 |
69 |
-1 |
22 |
17 |
-5 |
0.12 |
0.75 |
0.63 |
| 2024-11-17 |
81 |
83 |
2 |
65 |
66 |
1 |
14 |
11 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-16 |
77 |
77 |
0 |
56 |
57 |
1 |
12 |
10 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-15 |
73 |
74 |
1 |
60 |
56 |
-4 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
NAM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NAM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NAM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NAM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NAM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2024-12-14 |
74 |
71 |
-3 |
58 |
57 |
-1 |
17 |
15 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-13 |
68 |
59 |
-9 |
51 |
45 |
-6 |
19 |
11 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-12 |
58 |
58 |
0 |
39 |
39 |
0 |
14 |
10 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-11 |
58 |
54 |
-4 |
41 |
44 |
3 |
21 |
20 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-10 |
77 |
73 |
-4 |
58 |
58 |
0 |
17 |
17 |
-0 |
0.60 |
1.40 |
0.80 |
| 2024-12-09 |
76 |
73 |
-3 |
68 |
67 |
-1 |
13 |
10 |
-3 |
0.25 |
1.55 |
1.30 |
| 2024-12-08 |
71 |
70 |
-1 |
53 |
52 |
-1 |
15 |
12 |
-3 |
0.02 |
0.10 |
0.08 |
| 2024-12-07 |
55 |
58 |
3 |
44 |
38 |
-6 |
12 |
8 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2024-12-06 |
52 |
52 |
0 |
40 |
38 |
-2 |
16 |
14 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-05 |
69 |
64 |
-5 |
47 |
47 |
0 |
19 |
15 |
-4 |
1.27 |
1.50 |
0.23 |
| 2024-12-04 |
69 |
67 |
-2 |
41 |
45 |
4 |
12 |
10 |
-2 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
| 2024-12-03 |
58 |
58 |
0 |
41 |
40 |
-1 |
15 |
12 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-02 |
61 |
63 |
2 |
44 |
42 |
-2 |
14 |
9 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-12-01 |
64 |
63 |
-1 |
41 |
42 |
1 |
9 |
7 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-30 |
58 |
59 |
1 |
44 |
40 |
-4 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-29 |
58 |
58 |
0 |
48 |
45 |
-3 |
16 |
16 |
0 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2024-11-28 |
73 |
70 |
-3 |
54 |
53 |
-1 |
16 |
14 |
-2 |
0.01 |
0.10 |
0.09 |
| 2024-11-27 |
78 |
76 |
-2 |
55 |
55 |
0 |
13 |
10 |
-3 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
| 2024-11-26 |
69 |
68 |
-1 |
57 |
55 |
-2 |
10 |
10 |
-0 |
0.03 |
0.05 |
0.02 |
| 2024-11-25 |
81 |
79 |
-2 |
57 |
60 |
3 |
15 |
12 |
-3 |
0.04 |
0.00 |
-0.04 |
| 2024-11-24 |
74 |
73 |
-1 |
48 |
51 |
3 |
11 |
8 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-23 |
67 |
66 |
-1 |
46 |
45 |
-1 |
8 |
5 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-22 |
64 |
63 |
-1 |
49 |
46 |
-3 |
12 |
12 |
-0 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-21 |
67 |
64 |
-3 |
53 |
45 |
-8 |
17 |
11 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-20 |
72 |
71 |
-1 |
59 |
52 |
-7 |
19 |
17 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-19 |
81 |
81 |
0 |
68 |
66 |
-2 |
20 |
9 |
-11 |
1.84 |
1.50 |
-0.34 |
| 2024-11-18 |
83 |
84 |
1 |
70 |
65 |
-5 |
22 |
13 |
-9 |
0.12 |
0.20 |
0.08 |
| 2024-11-17 |
81 |
77 |
-4 |
65 |
63 |
-2 |
14 |
10 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-16 |
77 |
74 |
-3 |
56 |
56 |
0 |
12 |
8 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2024-11-15 |
73 |
74 |
1 |
60 |
53 |
-7 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
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This page was last updated: 2024-12-15 07:00 AM Central