KBUF | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
KBUF | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
| Mean Absolute Error (2026-02-12 to 2026-03-13) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
2 |
3 |
3 |
10 |
| Low (F) |
3 |
3 |
2 |
8 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
6 |
7 |
6 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.06 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
0.14 |
AE = Absolute value of Forecast - Obs; Lower values = a more accurate forecast overall
| Mean Bias (2026-02-12 to 2026-03-13) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
-1 |
1 |
-1 |
-6 |
| Low (F) |
0 |
1 |
0 |
-5 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
-6 |
-7 |
-6 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.01 |
0.04 |
-0.00 |
-0.02 |
Bias = Forecast - Obs
Positive values: Forecast too high; Negative values: Forecast too low
Adjust by subtracting forecast - error
| Yesterday (2026-03-13) |
Obs |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
43 |
0 |
-4 |
-3 |
-2 |
| Low (F) |
26 |
1 |
-1 |
0 |
0 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
30 |
-8 |
-10 |
-7 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.16 |
0.11 |
0.29 |
0.09 |
-0.07 |
NBM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NBM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NBM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NBM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NBM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2026-03-13 |
43 |
43 |
0 |
26 |
27 |
1 |
30 |
22 |
-8 |
0.16 |
0.27 |
0.11 |
| 2026-03-12 |
35 |
35 |
0 |
29 |
29 |
0 |
26 |
17 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
| 2026-03-11 |
64 |
66 |
2 |
35 |
37 |
2 |
33 |
18 |
-15 |
1.11 |
0.80 |
-0.31 |
| 2026-03-10 |
61 |
58 |
-3 |
42 |
46 |
4 |
19 |
9 |
-10 |
0.01 |
0.14 |
0.13 |
| 2026-03-09 |
67 |
61 |
-6 |
37 |
41 |
4 |
25 |
19 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-03-08 |
50 |
47 |
-3 |
36 |
39 |
3 |
29 |
19 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
| 2026-03-07 |
72 |
68 |
-4 |
50 |
47 |
-3 |
25 |
18 |
-7 |
0.25 |
0.34 |
0.09 |
| 2026-03-06 |
61 |
55 |
-6 |
30 |
34 |
4 |
16 |
14 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
| 2026-03-05 |
41 |
41 |
0 |
32 |
32 |
0 |
22 |
13 |
-9 |
0.59 |
0.42 |
-0.17 |
| 2026-03-04 |
53 |
46 |
-7 |
31 |
30 |
-1 |
9 |
4 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-03-03 |
38 |
40 |
2 |
25 |
23 |
-2 |
10 |
5 |
-5 |
0.01 |
0.03 |
0.02 |
| 2026-03-02 |
30 |
32 |
2 |
11 |
11 |
0 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-03-01 |
25 |
22 |
-3 |
15 |
13 |
-2 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.03 |
0.06 |
0.03 |
| 2026-02-28 |
48 |
42 |
-6 |
23 |
24 |
1 |
21 |
17 |
-4 |
0.02 |
0.03 |
0.01 |
| 2026-02-27 |
44 |
43 |
-1 |
16 |
18 |
2 |
18 |
17 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-02-26 |
26 |
27 |
1 |
17 |
18 |
1 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-02-25 |
35 |
34 |
-1 |
26 |
21 |
-5 |
25 |
18 |
-7 |
0.11 |
0.09 |
-0.02 |
| 2026-02-24 |
28 |
28 |
0 |
12 |
10 |
-2 |
18 |
14 |
-4 |
0.07 |
0.11 |
0.04 |
| 2026-02-23 |
30 |
30 |
0 |
18 |
14 |
-4 |
18 |
14 |
-4 |
0.08 |
0.07 |
-0.01 |
| 2026-02-22 |
34 |
35 |
1 |
29 |
28 |
-1 |
10 |
6 |
-4 |
0.10 |
0.05 |
-0.05 |
| 2026-02-21 |
32 |
34 |
2 |
31 |
29 |
-2 |
25 |
15 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.23 |
0.23 |
| 2026-02-20 |
49 |
47 |
-2 |
32 |
34 |
2 |
30 |
17 |
-13 |
0.14 |
0.39 |
0.25 |
| 2026-02-19 |
41 |
44 |
3 |
29 |
31 |
2 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-02-18 |
37 |
39 |
2 |
31 |
31 |
0 |
20 |
11 |
-9 |
0.61 |
0.66 |
0.05 |
| 2026-02-17 |
41 |
40 |
-1 |
33 |
35 |
2 |
15 |
11 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-02-16 |
41 |
39 |
-2 |
23 |
30 |
7 |
13 |
10 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
| 2026-02-15 |
39 |
38 |
-1 |
21 |
23 |
2 |
11 |
5 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-02-14 |
35 |
33 |
-2 |
22 |
24 |
2 |
12 |
10 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
| 2026-02-13 |
29 |
31 |
2 |
18 |
9 |
-9 |
18 |
13 |
-5 |
0.04 |
0.00 |
-0.04 |
| 2026-02-12 |
26 |
24 |
-2 |
21 |
15 |
-6 |
13 |
10 |
-3 |
0.05 |
0.00 |
-0.05 |
GFS Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High GFS (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low GFS (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind GFS (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip GFS (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2026-03-13 |
43 |
39 |
-4 |
26 |
25 |
-1 |
30 |
20 |
-10 |
0.16 |
0.45 |
0.29 |
| 2026-03-12 |
35 |
35 |
0 |
29 |
29 |
0 |
26 |
17 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-03-11 |
64 |
70 |
6 |
35 |
42 |
7 |
33 |
20 |
-13 |
1.11 |
1.20 |
0.09 |
| 2026-03-10 |
61 |
64 |
3 |
42 |
46 |
4 |
19 |
8 |
-11 |
0.01 |
0.10 |
0.09 |
| 2026-03-09 |
67 |
64 |
-3 |
37 |
38 |
1 |
25 |
20 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-03-08 |
50 |
57 |
7 |
36 |
45 |
9 |
29 |
21 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-03-07 |
72 |
75 |
3 |
50 |
47 |
-3 |
25 |
21 |
-4 |
0.25 |
0.35 |
0.10 |
| 2026-03-06 |
61 |
53 |
-8 |
30 |
35 |
5 |
16 |
10 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-03-05 |
41 |
43 |
2 |
32 |
34 |
2 |
22 |
11 |
-11 |
0.59 |
0.60 |
0.01 |
| 2026-03-04 |
53 |
54 |
1 |
31 |
30 |
-1 |
9 |
5 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-03-03 |
38 |
44 |
6 |
25 |
24 |
-1 |
10 |
6 |
-4 |
0.01 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
| 2026-03-02 |
30 |
30 |
0 |
11 |
11 |
0 |
8 |
5 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-03-01 |
25 |
21 |
-4 |
15 |
12 |
-3 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.03 |
0.00 |
-0.03 |
| 2026-02-28 |
48 |
42 |
-6 |
23 |
21 |
-2 |
21 |
17 |
-4 |
0.02 |
0.00 |
-0.02 |
| 2026-02-27 |
44 |
45 |
1 |
16 |
21 |
5 |
18 |
16 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-02-26 |
26 |
28 |
2 |
17 |
21 |
4 |
15 |
7 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-02-25 |
35 |
37 |
2 |
26 |
24 |
-2 |
25 |
18 |
-7 |
0.11 |
0.05 |
-0.06 |
| 2026-02-24 |
28 |
29 |
1 |
12 |
12 |
0 |
18 |
14 |
-4 |
0.07 |
0.05 |
-0.02 |
| 2026-02-23 |
30 |
29 |
-1 |
18 |
16 |
-2 |
18 |
13 |
-5 |
0.08 |
0.10 |
0.02 |
| 2026-02-22 |
34 |
35 |
1 |
29 |
28 |
-1 |
10 |
6 |
-4 |
0.10 |
0.15 |
0.05 |
| 2026-02-21 |
32 |
35 |
3 |
31 |
28 |
-3 |
25 |
11 |
-14 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
| 2026-02-20 |
49 |
44 |
-5 |
32 |
36 |
4 |
30 |
16 |
-14 |
0.14 |
0.35 |
0.21 |
| 2026-02-19 |
41 |
42 |
1 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-02-18 |
37 |
39 |
2 |
31 |
31 |
0 |
20 |
12 |
-8 |
0.61 |
0.80 |
0.19 |
| 2026-02-17 |
41 |
46 |
5 |
33 |
33 |
0 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-02-16 |
41 |
42 |
1 |
23 |
30 |
7 |
13 |
8 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2026-02-15 |
39 |
40 |
1 |
21 |
26 |
5 |
11 |
6 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-02-14 |
35 |
39 |
4 |
22 |
27 |
5 |
12 |
9 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-02-13 |
29 |
34 |
5 |
18 |
11 |
-7 |
18 |
13 |
-5 |
0.04 |
0.05 |
0.01 |
| 2026-02-12 |
26 |
25 |
-1 |
21 |
15 |
-6 |
13 |
11 |
-2 |
0.05 |
0.00 |
-0.05 |
NAM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NAM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NAM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NAM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NAM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2026-03-13 |
43 |
40 |
-3 |
26 |
26 |
0 |
30 |
23 |
-7 |
0.16 |
0.25 |
0.09 |
| 2026-03-12 |
35 |
33 |
-2 |
29 |
27 |
-2 |
26 |
18 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-03-11 |
64 |
73 |
9 |
35 |
36 |
1 |
33 |
24 |
-9 |
1.11 |
0.70 |
-0.41 |
| 2026-03-10 |
61 |
56 |
-5 |
42 |
45 |
3 |
19 |
9 |
-10 |
0.01 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
| 2026-03-09 |
67 |
61 |
-6 |
37 |
42 |
5 |
25 |
18 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-03-08 |
50 |
47 |
-3 |
36 |
41 |
5 |
29 |
18 |
-11 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-03-07 |
72 |
66 |
-6 |
50 |
49 |
-1 |
25 |
18 |
-7 |
0.25 |
0.35 |
0.10 |
| 2026-03-06 |
61 |
50 |
-11 |
30 |
32 |
2 |
16 |
12 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-03-05 |
41 |
41 |
0 |
32 |
31 |
-1 |
22 |
11 |
-11 |
0.59 |
0.85 |
0.26 |
| 2026-03-04 |
53 |
43 |
-10 |
31 |
28 |
-3 |
9 |
5 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-03-03 |
38 |
38 |
0 |
25 |
22 |
-3 |
10 |
7 |
-3 |
0.01 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
| 2026-03-02 |
30 |
33 |
3 |
11 |
10 |
-1 |
8 |
7 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-03-01 |
25 |
23 |
-2 |
15 |
14 |
-1 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.03 |
0.00 |
-0.03 |
| 2026-02-28 |
48 |
40 |
-8 |
23 |
22 |
-1 |
21 |
16 |
-5 |
0.02 |
0.00 |
-0.02 |
| 2026-02-27 |
44 |
46 |
2 |
16 |
22 |
6 |
18 |
17 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-02-26 |
26 |
29 |
3 |
17 |
21 |
4 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-02-25 |
35 |
36 |
1 |
26 |
26 |
0 |
25 |
19 |
-6 |
0.11 |
0.00 |
-0.11 |
| 2026-02-24 |
28 |
29 |
1 |
12 |
12 |
0 |
18 |
13 |
-5 |
0.07 |
0.05 |
-0.02 |
| 2026-02-23 |
30 |
29 |
-1 |
18 |
15 |
-3 |
18 |
15 |
-3 |
0.08 |
0.10 |
0.02 |
| 2026-02-22 |
34 |
37 |
3 |
29 |
27 |
-2 |
10 |
7 |
-3 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
0.00 |
| 2026-02-21 |
32 |
34 |
2 |
31 |
29 |
-2 |
25 |
12 |
-13 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2026-02-20 |
49 |
44 |
-5 |
32 |
35 |
3 |
30 |
15 |
-15 |
0.14 |
0.30 |
0.16 |
| 2026-02-19 |
41 |
43 |
2 |
29 |
28 |
-1 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-02-18 |
37 |
39 |
2 |
31 |
28 |
-3 |
20 |
11 |
-9 |
0.61 |
0.45 |
-0.16 |
| 2026-02-17 |
41 |
43 |
2 |
33 |
32 |
-1 |
15 |
11 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-02-16 |
41 |
41 |
0 |
23 |
29 |
6 |
13 |
8 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2026-02-15 |
39 |
40 |
1 |
21 |
22 |
1 |
11 |
7 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-02-14 |
35 |
36 |
1 |
22 |
25 |
3 |
12 |
9 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2026-02-13 |
29 |
31 |
2 |
18 |
16 |
-2 |
18 |
15 |
-3 |
0.04 |
0.00 |
-0.04 |
| 2026-02-12 |
26 |
27 |
1 |
21 |
19 |
-2 |
13 |
11 |
-2 |
0.05 |
0.00 |
-0.05 |
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This page was last updated: 2026-03-14 07:00 AM Central