KSAT | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
KSAT | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
| Mean Absolute Error (2025-05-13 to 2025-06-11) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
2 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
| Low (F) |
2 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
8 |
6 |
8 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.16 |
0.23 |
0.17 |
0.31 |
AE = Absolute value of Forecast - Obs; Lower values = a more accurate forecast overall
| Mean Bias (2025-05-13 to 2025-06-11) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
2 |
1 |
-2 |
-5 |
| Low (F) |
1 |
0 |
1 |
-4 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
-8 |
-6 |
-8 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
-0.11 |
0.08 |
-0.16 |
-0.08 |
Bias = Forecast - Obs
Positive values: Forecast too high; Negative values: Forecast too low
Adjust by subtracting forecast - error
| Yesterday (2025-06-11) |
Obs |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
88 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
4 |
| Low (F) |
70 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
22 |
-11 |
-12 |
-12 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.76 |
-0.25 |
2.64 |
0.09 |
-0.66 |
NBM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NBM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NBM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NBM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NBM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2025-06-11 |
88 |
89 |
1 |
70 |
74 |
4 |
22 |
11 |
-11 |
0.76 |
0.51 |
-0.25 |
| 2025-06-10 |
94 |
94 |
0 |
74 |
76 |
2 |
23 |
11 |
-12 |
0.00 |
0.14 |
0.14 |
| 2025-06-09 |
98 |
98 |
0 |
77 |
77 |
0 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-08 |
96 |
100 |
4 |
78 |
77 |
-1 |
19 |
14 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-07 |
96 |
99 |
3 |
78 |
78 |
0 |
19 |
13 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-06 |
95 |
96 |
1 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
23 |
12 |
-11 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-05 |
94 |
94 |
0 |
78 |
76 |
-2 |
19 |
12 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-04 |
92 |
93 |
1 |
79 |
77 |
-2 |
16 |
11 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
| 2025-06-03 |
93 |
93 |
0 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
18 |
13 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-06-02 |
93 |
95 |
2 |
73 |
74 |
1 |
19 |
15 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-01 |
94 |
96 |
2 |
72 |
74 |
2 |
19 |
8 |
-11 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-31 |
87 |
90 |
3 |
71 |
72 |
1 |
13 |
5 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-05-30 |
85 |
90 |
5 |
69 |
74 |
5 |
21 |
10 |
-11 |
1.42 |
0.15 |
-1.27 |
| 2025-05-29 |
89 |
92 |
3 |
72 |
72 |
0 |
13 |
8 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-28 |
86 |
87 |
1 |
66 |
72 |
6 |
34 |
9 |
-25 |
2.05 |
1.07 |
-0.98 |
| 2025-05-27 |
88 |
92 |
4 |
67 |
72 |
5 |
24 |
10 |
-14 |
0.01 |
0.51 |
0.50 |
| 2025-05-26 |
95 |
97 |
2 |
68 |
78 |
10 |
23 |
14 |
-9 |
2.00 |
0.74 |
-1.26 |
| 2025-05-25 |
98 |
98 |
0 |
78 |
77 |
-1 |
24 |
16 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-24 |
99 |
99 |
0 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
21 |
16 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-23 |
95 |
97 |
2 |
68 |
74 |
6 |
21 |
13 |
-8 |
0.31 |
0.00 |
-0.31 |
| 2025-05-22 |
99 |
98 |
-1 |
77 |
75 |
-2 |
22 |
12 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-21 |
97 |
97 |
0 |
73 |
70 |
-3 |
21 |
9 |
-12 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-20 |
100 |
100 |
0 |
78 |
74 |
-4 |
16 |
8 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-19 |
92 |
98 |
6 |
78 |
77 |
-1 |
17 |
14 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-05-18 |
97 |
97 |
0 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
24 |
15 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-17 |
99 |
100 |
1 |
79 |
77 |
-2 |
25 |
12 |
-13 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-16 |
99 |
101 |
2 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-15 |
98 |
102 |
4 |
70 |
74 |
4 |
18 |
10 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-14 |
102 |
105 |
3 |
72 |
73 |
1 |
18 |
13 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-13 |
103 |
104 |
1 |
66 |
66 |
0 |
19 |
12 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
GFS Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High GFS (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low GFS (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind GFS (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip GFS (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2025-06-11 |
88 |
90 |
2 |
70 |
72 |
2 |
22 |
10 |
-12 |
0.76 |
3.40 |
2.64 |
| 2025-06-10 |
94 |
93 |
-1 |
74 |
75 |
1 |
23 |
15 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
| 2025-06-09 |
98 |
98 |
0 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
15 |
13 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-08 |
96 |
99 |
3 |
78 |
78 |
0 |
19 |
19 |
-0 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-07 |
96 |
98 |
2 |
78 |
77 |
-1 |
19 |
18 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-06 |
95 |
96 |
1 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
23 |
18 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-05 |
94 |
95 |
1 |
78 |
76 |
-2 |
19 |
16 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-04 |
92 |
95 |
3 |
79 |
77 |
-2 |
16 |
12 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-03 |
93 |
93 |
0 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
18 |
14 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-06-02 |
93 |
96 |
3 |
73 |
75 |
2 |
19 |
16 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-01 |
94 |
96 |
2 |
72 |
73 |
1 |
19 |
12 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-31 |
87 |
90 |
3 |
71 |
70 |
-1 |
13 |
6 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-05-29 |
89 |
92 |
3 |
72 |
72 |
0 |
13 |
10 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-28 |
86 |
89 |
3 |
66 |
69 |
3 |
34 |
8 |
-26 |
2.05 |
1.50 |
-0.55 |
| 2025-05-27 |
88 |
93 |
5 |
67 |
72 |
5 |
24 |
11 |
-13 |
0.01 |
1.55 |
1.54 |
| 2025-05-26 |
95 |
96 |
1 |
68 |
74 |
6 |
23 |
19 |
-4 |
2.00 |
0.75 |
-1.25 |
| 2025-05-25 |
98 |
99 |
1 |
78 |
77 |
-1 |
24 |
20 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-24 |
99 |
98 |
-1 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
21 |
19 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-23 |
95 |
95 |
0 |
68 |
71 |
3 |
21 |
15 |
-6 |
0.31 |
0.00 |
-0.31 |
| 2025-05-22 |
99 |
95 |
-4 |
77 |
75 |
-2 |
22 |
16 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-21 |
97 |
95 |
-2 |
73 |
68 |
-5 |
21 |
11 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-20 |
100 |
102 |
2 |
78 |
71 |
-7 |
16 |
12 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-19 |
92 |
99 |
7 |
78 |
77 |
-1 |
17 |
14 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-05-18 |
97 |
96 |
-1 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
24 |
17 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-17 |
99 |
97 |
-2 |
79 |
75 |
-4 |
25 |
15 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2025-05-16 |
99 |
100 |
1 |
77 |
77 |
0 |
15 |
13 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-15 |
98 |
101 |
3 |
70 |
73 |
3 |
18 |
12 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-14 |
102 |
103 |
1 |
72 |
71 |
-1 |
18 |
19 |
1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-13 |
103 |
101 |
-2 |
66 |
65 |
-1 |
19 |
13 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
NAM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NAM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NAM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NAM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NAM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2025-06-11 |
88 |
88 |
0 |
70 |
74 |
4 |
22 |
10 |
-12 |
0.76 |
0.85 |
0.09 |
| 2025-06-10 |
94 |
93 |
-1 |
74 |
77 |
3 |
23 |
11 |
-12 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-06-09 |
98 |
93 |
-5 |
77 |
75 |
-2 |
15 |
11 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-08 |
96 |
95 |
-1 |
78 |
77 |
-1 |
19 |
14 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-07 |
96 |
98 |
2 |
78 |
78 |
0 |
19 |
14 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-06 |
95 |
95 |
0 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
23 |
12 |
-11 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-05 |
94 |
93 |
-1 |
78 |
74 |
-4 |
19 |
11 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-04 |
92 |
91 |
-1 |
79 |
77 |
-2 |
16 |
11 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-03 |
93 |
92 |
-1 |
77 |
77 |
0 |
18 |
14 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-06-02 |
93 |
91 |
-2 |
73 |
75 |
2 |
19 |
13 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-06-01 |
94 |
95 |
1 |
72 |
74 |
2 |
19 |
12 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-31 |
87 |
89 |
2 |
71 |
69 |
-2 |
13 |
6 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-05-30 |
85 |
87 |
2 |
69 |
74 |
5 |
21 |
9 |
-12 |
1.42 |
0.00 |
-1.42 |
| 2025-05-29 |
89 |
91 |
2 |
72 |
71 |
-1 |
13 |
8 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-28 |
86 |
81 |
-5 |
66 |
70 |
4 |
34 |
13 |
-21 |
2.05 |
0.75 |
-1.30 |
| 2025-05-27 |
88 |
91 |
3 |
67 |
73 |
6 |
24 |
10 |
-14 |
0.01 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
| 2025-05-26 |
95 |
89 |
-6 |
68 |
77 |
9 |
23 |
14 |
-9 |
2.00 |
0.00 |
-2.00 |
| 2025-05-25 |
98 |
93 |
-5 |
78 |
76 |
-2 |
24 |
17 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-24 |
99 |
93 |
-6 |
77 |
75 |
-2 |
21 |
17 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-23 |
95 |
95 |
0 |
68 |
75 |
7 |
21 |
13 |
-8 |
0.31 |
0.00 |
-0.31 |
| 2025-05-22 |
99 |
95 |
-4 |
77 |
75 |
-2 |
22 |
12 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-21 |
97 |
94 |
-3 |
73 |
71 |
-2 |
21 |
9 |
-12 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-20 |
100 |
97 |
-3 |
78 |
72 |
-6 |
16 |
10 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-19 |
92 |
90 |
-2 |
78 |
78 |
0 |
17 |
15 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-05-18 |
97 |
90 |
-7 |
77 |
77 |
0 |
24 |
17 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-17 |
99 |
93 |
-6 |
79 |
77 |
-2 |
25 |
14 |
-11 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-16 |
99 |
92 |
-7 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
15 |
11 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-15 |
98 |
95 |
-3 |
70 |
74 |
4 |
18 |
15 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-14 |
102 |
96 |
-6 |
72 |
75 |
3 |
18 |
14 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-13 |
103 |
99 |
-4 |
66 |
69 |
3 |
19 |
13 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
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This page was last updated: 2025-06-12 07:00 AM Central