KSAT | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
KSAT | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
| Mean Absolute Error (2025-04-20 to 2025-05-19) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
2 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
| Low (F) |
1 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
8 |
6 |
7 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.11 |
0.14 |
0.09 |
0.17 |
AE = Absolute value of Forecast - Obs; Lower values = a more accurate forecast overall
| Mean Bias (2025-04-20 to 2025-05-19) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
1 |
1 |
-3 |
-5 |
| Low (F) |
1 |
0 |
0 |
-5 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
-8 |
-6 |
-7 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.03 |
0.02 |
-0.04 |
0.05 |
Bias = Forecast - Obs
Positive values: Forecast too high; Negative values: Forecast too low
Adjust by subtracting forecast - error
| Yesterday (2025-05-19) |
Obs |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
92 |
6 |
7 |
-2 |
-5 |
| Low (F) |
78 |
-1 |
-1 |
0 |
-11 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
17 |
-3 |
-3 |
-2 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
-0.00 |
-0.00 |
0.16 |
NBM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NBM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NBM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NBM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NBM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2025-05-19 |
92 |
98 |
6 |
78 |
77 |
-1 |
17 |
14 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-05-18 |
97 |
97 |
0 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
24 |
15 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-17 |
99 |
100 |
1 |
79 |
77 |
-2 |
25 |
12 |
-13 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-16 |
99 |
101 |
2 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-15 |
98 |
102 |
4 |
70 |
74 |
4 |
18 |
10 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-14 |
102 |
105 |
3 |
72 |
73 |
1 |
18 |
13 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-13 |
103 |
104 |
1 |
66 |
66 |
0 |
19 |
12 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-12 |
94 |
94 |
0 |
56 |
58 |
2 |
11 |
6 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-11 |
86 |
87 |
1 |
60 |
61 |
1 |
18 |
10 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-10 |
85 |
82 |
-3 |
61 |
62 |
1 |
26 |
11 |
-15 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-05-09 |
85 |
85 |
0 |
64 |
64 |
0 |
18 |
11 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-08 |
87 |
87 |
0 |
66 |
66 |
0 |
18 |
12 |
-6 |
0.02 |
0.45 |
0.43 |
| 2025-05-07 |
87 |
88 |
1 |
65 |
67 |
2 |
14 |
9 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
| 2025-05-06 |
90 |
88 |
-2 |
66 |
70 |
4 |
16 |
11 |
-5 |
0.02 |
0.27 |
0.25 |
| 2025-05-05 |
81 |
78 |
-3 |
65 |
65 |
0 |
17 |
13 |
-4 |
0.13 |
0.56 |
0.43 |
| 2025-05-04 |
83 |
82 |
-1 |
57 |
58 |
1 |
17 |
10 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-03 |
83 |
81 |
-2 |
63 |
63 |
0 |
17 |
12 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
| 2025-05-02 |
87 |
88 |
1 |
65 |
70 |
5 |
22 |
11 |
-11 |
0.00 |
0.77 |
0.77 |
| 2025-05-01 |
90 |
91 |
1 |
73 |
70 |
-3 |
22 |
10 |
-12 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-30 |
90 |
88 |
-2 |
73 |
72 |
-1 |
25 |
14 |
-11 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2025-04-29 |
88 |
89 |
1 |
72 |
71 |
-1 |
24 |
17 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-28 |
86 |
89 |
3 |
73 |
71 |
-2 |
25 |
16 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-27 |
86 |
89 |
3 |
71 |
70 |
-1 |
21 |
15 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-26 |
84 |
86 |
2 |
69 |
69 |
0 |
20 |
13 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-25 |
86 |
87 |
1 |
70 |
70 |
0 |
18 |
11 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-24 |
84 |
86 |
2 |
71 |
71 |
0 |
20 |
13 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-23 |
81 |
83 |
2 |
65 |
70 |
5 |
35 |
12 |
-23 |
1.12 |
0.13 |
-0.99 |
| 2025-04-22 |
87 |
87 |
0 |
69 |
68 |
-1 |
17 |
12 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
| 2025-04-21 |
87 |
88 |
1 |
59 |
60 |
1 |
16 |
9 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-20 |
84 |
83 |
-1 |
62 |
65 |
3 |
23 |
11 |
-12 |
0.74 |
0.57 |
-0.17 |
GFS Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High GFS (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low GFS (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind GFS (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip GFS (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2025-05-19 |
92 |
99 |
7 |
78 |
77 |
-1 |
17 |
14 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-05-18 |
97 |
96 |
-1 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
24 |
17 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-17 |
99 |
97 |
-2 |
79 |
75 |
-4 |
25 |
15 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2025-05-16 |
99 |
100 |
1 |
77 |
77 |
0 |
15 |
13 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-15 |
98 |
101 |
3 |
70 |
73 |
3 |
18 |
12 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-14 |
102 |
103 |
1 |
72 |
71 |
-1 |
18 |
19 |
1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-13 |
103 |
101 |
-2 |
66 |
65 |
-1 |
19 |
13 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-12 |
94 |
91 |
-3 |
56 |
60 |
4 |
11 |
7 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-11 |
86 |
87 |
1 |
60 |
60 |
0 |
18 |
12 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-10 |
85 |
84 |
-1 |
61 |
62 |
1 |
26 |
13 |
-13 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-05-09 |
85 |
86 |
1 |
64 |
63 |
-1 |
18 |
13 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-08 |
87 |
83 |
-4 |
66 |
64 |
-2 |
18 |
11 |
-7 |
0.02 |
0.25 |
0.23 |
| 2025-05-07 |
87 |
92 |
5 |
65 |
65 |
0 |
14 |
10 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-06 |
90 |
88 |
-2 |
66 |
69 |
3 |
16 |
13 |
-3 |
0.02 |
0.80 |
0.78 |
| 2025-05-05 |
81 |
74 |
-7 |
65 |
61 |
-4 |
17 |
15 |
-2 |
0.13 |
0.10 |
-0.03 |
| 2025-05-04 |
83 |
85 |
2 |
57 |
56 |
-1 |
17 |
11 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-03 |
83 |
83 |
0 |
63 |
64 |
1 |
17 |
12 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-02 |
87 |
86 |
-1 |
65 |
68 |
3 |
22 |
11 |
-11 |
0.00 |
0.95 |
0.95 |
| 2025-05-01 |
90 |
91 |
1 |
73 |
70 |
-3 |
22 |
16 |
-6 |
0.02 |
0.40 |
0.38 |
| 2025-04-30 |
90 |
89 |
-1 |
73 |
70 |
-3 |
25 |
15 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2025-04-29 |
88 |
90 |
2 |
72 |
70 |
-2 |
24 |
20 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-28 |
86 |
90 |
4 |
73 |
70 |
-3 |
25 |
20 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-27 |
86 |
89 |
3 |
71 |
69 |
-2 |
21 |
17 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-26 |
84 |
85 |
1 |
69 |
70 |
1 |
20 |
15 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-25 |
86 |
85 |
-1 |
70 |
70 |
0 |
18 |
11 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-24 |
84 |
88 |
4 |
71 |
70 |
-1 |
20 |
13 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-23 |
81 |
85 |
4 |
65 |
70 |
5 |
35 |
13 |
-22 |
1.12 |
0.00 |
-1.12 |
| 2025-04-22 |
87 |
87 |
0 |
69 |
67 |
-2 |
17 |
12 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-21 |
87 |
88 |
1 |
59 |
60 |
1 |
16 |
13 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-20 |
84 |
84 |
0 |
62 |
64 |
2 |
23 |
13 |
-10 |
0.74 |
0.05 |
-0.69 |
NAM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NAM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NAM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NAM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NAM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2025-05-19 |
92 |
90 |
-2 |
78 |
78 |
0 |
17 |
15 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-05-18 |
97 |
90 |
-7 |
77 |
77 |
0 |
24 |
17 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-17 |
99 |
93 |
-6 |
79 |
77 |
-2 |
25 |
14 |
-11 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-16 |
99 |
92 |
-7 |
77 |
76 |
-1 |
15 |
11 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-15 |
98 |
95 |
-3 |
70 |
74 |
4 |
18 |
15 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-14 |
102 |
96 |
-6 |
72 |
75 |
3 |
18 |
14 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-13 |
103 |
99 |
-4 |
66 |
69 |
3 |
19 |
13 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-12 |
94 |
90 |
-4 |
56 |
57 |
1 |
11 |
6 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-11 |
86 |
86 |
0 |
60 |
58 |
-2 |
18 |
9 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-10 |
85 |
80 |
-5 |
61 |
61 |
0 |
26 |
12 |
-14 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-05-09 |
85 |
81 |
-4 |
64 |
63 |
-1 |
18 |
14 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-08 |
87 |
83 |
-4 |
66 |
62 |
-4 |
18 |
10 |
-8 |
0.02 |
0.00 |
-0.02 |
| 2025-05-07 |
87 |
82 |
-5 |
65 |
68 |
3 |
14 |
9 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-06 |
90 |
85 |
-5 |
66 |
71 |
5 |
16 |
15 |
-1 |
0.02 |
0.00 |
-0.02 |
| 2025-05-05 |
81 |
79 |
-2 |
65 |
65 |
0 |
17 |
16 |
-1 |
0.13 |
0.00 |
-0.13 |
| 2025-05-04 |
83 |
84 |
1 |
57 |
57 |
0 |
17 |
10 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-03 |
83 |
81 |
-2 |
63 |
63 |
0 |
17 |
13 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-05-02 |
87 |
86 |
-1 |
65 |
70 |
5 |
22 |
13 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.75 |
0.75 |
| 2025-05-01 |
90 |
87 |
-3 |
73 |
70 |
-3 |
22 |
12 |
-10 |
0.02 |
0.00 |
-0.02 |
| 2025-04-30 |
90 |
86 |
-4 |
73 |
72 |
-1 |
25 |
16 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-29 |
88 |
85 |
-3 |
72 |
71 |
-1 |
24 |
17 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-28 |
86 |
85 |
-1 |
73 |
70 |
-3 |
25 |
20 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-27 |
86 |
86 |
0 |
71 |
69 |
-2 |
21 |
15 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-26 |
84 |
85 |
1 |
69 |
69 |
0 |
20 |
15 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-25 |
86 |
85 |
-1 |
70 |
70 |
0 |
18 |
12 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-24 |
84 |
83 |
-1 |
71 |
69 |
-2 |
20 |
14 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-23 |
81 |
82 |
1 |
65 |
69 |
4 |
35 |
14 |
-21 |
1.12 |
0.00 |
-1.12 |
| 2025-04-22 |
87 |
84 |
-3 |
69 |
66 |
-3 |
17 |
11 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-21 |
87 |
87 |
0 |
59 |
59 |
0 |
16 |
10 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-20 |
84 |
77 |
-7 |
62 |
61 |
-1 |
23 |
14 |
-9 |
0.74 |
0.00 |
-0.74 |
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This page was last updated: 2025-05-20 07:00 AM Central