KSAT | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
KSAT | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification
| Mean Absolute Error (2025-03-26 to 2025-04-24) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
1 |
3 |
4 |
7 |
| Low (F) |
2 |
2 |
3 |
9 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
8 |
6 |
7 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.12 |
0.21 |
0.10 |
0.16 |
AE = Absolute value of Forecast - Obs; Lower values = a more accurate forecast overall
| Mean Bias (2025-03-26 to 2025-04-24) |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
0 |
-2 |
-3 |
-5 |
| Low (F) |
0 |
-1 |
-2 |
-5 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
-8 |
-5 |
-7 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
-0.02 |
0.07 |
-0.05 |
-0.04 |
Bias = Forecast - Obs
Positive values: Forecast too high; Negative values: Forecast too low
Adjust by subtracting forecast - error
| Yesterday (2025-04-24) |
Obs |
NBM |
GFS |
NAM |
Climo |
| High (F) |
84 |
2 |
4 |
-1 |
-2 |
| Low (F) |
71 |
0 |
-1 |
-2 |
-11 |
| Max Wind (kt) |
20 |
-7 |
-7 |
-6 |
- |
| Precipitation (in) |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
-0.00 |
-0.00 |
0.09 |
NBM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NBM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NBM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NBM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NBM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2025-04-24 |
84 |
86 |
2 |
71 |
71 |
0 |
20 |
13 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-23 |
81 |
83 |
2 |
65 |
70 |
5 |
35 |
12 |
-23 |
1.12 |
0.13 |
-0.99 |
| 2025-04-22 |
87 |
87 |
0 |
69 |
68 |
-1 |
17 |
12 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
| 2025-04-21 |
87 |
88 |
1 |
59 |
60 |
1 |
16 |
9 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-20 |
84 |
83 |
-1 |
62 |
65 |
3 |
23 |
11 |
-12 |
0.74 |
0.57 |
-0.17 |
| 2025-04-19 |
83 |
85 |
2 |
69 |
70 |
1 |
27 |
16 |
-11 |
0.00 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
| 2025-04-18 |
92 |
92 |
0 |
67 |
69 |
2 |
24 |
16 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-17 |
89 |
90 |
1 |
67 |
65 |
-2 |
23 |
15 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-16 |
85 |
86 |
1 |
65 |
63 |
-2 |
20 |
15 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-15 |
82 |
83 |
1 |
67 |
63 |
-4 |
16 |
12 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-14 |
92 |
91 |
-1 |
65 |
62 |
-3 |
17 |
9 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-13 |
92 |
92 |
0 |
62 |
61 |
-1 |
21 |
16 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-12 |
91 |
89 |
-2 |
61 |
60 |
-1 |
19 |
13 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-11 |
90 |
88 |
-2 |
60 |
62 |
2 |
12 |
8 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-10 |
91 |
91 |
0 |
56 |
57 |
1 |
16 |
7 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-09 |
87 |
87 |
0 |
56 |
52 |
-4 |
16 |
11 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-08 |
79 |
79 |
0 |
44 |
46 |
2 |
14 |
6 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-07 |
74 |
74 |
0 |
39 |
42 |
3 |
15 |
8 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-06 |
61 |
64 |
3 |
45 |
44 |
-1 |
23 |
15 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-05 |
76 |
77 |
1 |
51 |
51 |
0 |
26 |
17 |
-9 |
0.05 |
0.22 |
0.17 |
| 2025-04-04 |
91 |
89 |
-2 |
71 |
72 |
1 |
21 |
12 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.07 |
0.07 |
| 2025-04-03 |
93 |
92 |
-1 |
74 |
72 |
-2 |
22 |
12 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-02 |
88 |
89 |
1 |
74 |
70 |
-4 |
21 |
10 |
-11 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-01 |
87 |
84 |
-3 |
65 |
61 |
-4 |
23 |
14 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-31 |
87 |
89 |
2 |
66 |
66 |
0 |
14 |
9 |
-5 |
0.33 |
0.00 |
-0.33 |
| 2025-03-30 |
82 |
86 |
4 |
69 |
68 |
-1 |
14 |
5 |
-9 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-03-29 |
89 |
87 |
-2 |
67 |
64 |
-3 |
17 |
9 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-03-28 |
78 |
76 |
-2 |
64 |
62 |
-2 |
14 |
8 |
-6 |
0.05 |
0.82 |
0.77 |
| 2025-03-27 |
69 |
71 |
2 |
63 |
63 |
0 |
14 |
11 |
-3 |
0.43 |
0.79 |
0.36 |
| 2025-03-26 |
83 |
83 |
0 |
64 |
63 |
-1 |
27 |
11 |
-16 |
0.81 |
0.15 |
-0.66 |
GFS Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High GFS (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low GFS (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind GFS (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip GFS (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2025-04-24 |
84 |
88 |
4 |
71 |
70 |
-1 |
20 |
13 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-23 |
81 |
85 |
4 |
65 |
70 |
5 |
35 |
13 |
-22 |
1.12 |
0.00 |
-1.12 |
| 2025-04-22 |
87 |
87 |
0 |
69 |
67 |
-2 |
17 |
12 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-21 |
87 |
88 |
1 |
59 |
60 |
1 |
16 |
13 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-20 |
84 |
84 |
0 |
62 |
64 |
2 |
23 |
13 |
-10 |
0.74 |
0.05 |
-0.69 |
| 2025-04-19 |
83 |
86 |
3 |
69 |
69 |
0 |
27 |
25 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-18 |
92 |
89 |
-3 |
67 |
69 |
2 |
24 |
20 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-17 |
89 |
88 |
-1 |
67 |
65 |
-2 |
23 |
18 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-16 |
85 |
86 |
1 |
65 |
63 |
-2 |
20 |
18 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-15 |
82 |
82 |
0 |
67 |
63 |
-4 |
16 |
14 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-14 |
92 |
89 |
-3 |
65 |
62 |
-3 |
17 |
12 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-13 |
92 |
89 |
-3 |
62 |
60 |
-2 |
21 |
19 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-12 |
91 |
86 |
-5 |
61 |
60 |
-1 |
19 |
17 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-11 |
90 |
84 |
-6 |
60 |
61 |
1 |
12 |
9 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-10 |
91 |
86 |
-5 |
56 |
57 |
1 |
16 |
8 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-09 |
87 |
83 |
-4 |
56 |
52 |
-4 |
16 |
13 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-08 |
79 |
78 |
-1 |
44 |
46 |
2 |
14 |
8 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-07 |
74 |
75 |
1 |
39 |
41 |
2 |
15 |
8 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-06 |
61 |
66 |
5 |
45 |
46 |
1 |
23 |
22 |
-1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-05 |
76 |
69 |
-7 |
51 |
50 |
-1 |
26 |
19 |
-7 |
0.05 |
1.50 |
1.45 |
| 2025-04-04 |
91 |
80 |
-11 |
71 |
66 |
-5 |
21 |
13 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
| 2025-04-03 |
93 |
89 |
-4 |
74 |
72 |
-2 |
22 |
17 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-02 |
88 |
90 |
2 |
74 |
69 |
-5 |
21 |
14 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-01 |
87 |
84 |
-3 |
65 |
61 |
-4 |
23 |
21 |
-2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-31 |
87 |
92 |
5 |
66 |
68 |
2 |
14 |
9 |
-5 |
0.33 |
0.00 |
-0.33 |
| 2025-03-30 |
82 |
84 |
2 |
69 |
68 |
-1 |
14 |
7 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-03-29 |
89 |
88 |
-1 |
67 |
63 |
-4 |
17 |
13 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-03-28 |
78 |
71 |
-7 |
64 |
59 |
-5 |
14 |
6 |
-8 |
0.05 |
0.25 |
0.20 |
| 2025-03-27 |
69 |
64 |
-5 |
63 |
60 |
-3 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
0.43 |
1.55 |
1.12 |
| 2025-03-26 |
83 |
77 |
-6 |
64 |
63 |
-1 |
27 |
12 |
-15 |
0.81 |
2.25 |
1.44 |
NAM Source Data
| Date |
High Obs (F) |
High NAM (F) |
High Error (F) |
Low Obs (F) |
Low NAM (F) |
Low Error (F) |
Max Wind Obs (kt) |
Max Wind NAM (kt) |
Max Wind Error (kt) |
Precip Obs (in) |
Precip NAM (in) |
Precip Error (in) |
| 2025-04-24 |
84 |
83 |
-1 |
71 |
69 |
-2 |
20 |
14 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-23 |
81 |
82 |
1 |
65 |
69 |
4 |
35 |
14 |
-21 |
1.12 |
0.00 |
-1.12 |
| 2025-04-22 |
87 |
84 |
-3 |
69 |
66 |
-3 |
17 |
11 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-21 |
87 |
87 |
0 |
59 |
59 |
0 |
16 |
10 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-20 |
84 |
77 |
-7 |
62 |
61 |
-1 |
23 |
14 |
-9 |
0.74 |
0.00 |
-0.74 |
| 2025-04-19 |
83 |
83 |
0 |
69 |
69 |
0 |
27 |
19 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-18 |
92 |
87 |
-5 |
67 |
70 |
3 |
24 |
18 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-17 |
89 |
84 |
-5 |
67 |
65 |
-2 |
23 |
19 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-16 |
85 |
82 |
-3 |
65 |
63 |
-2 |
20 |
15 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-15 |
82 |
74 |
-8 |
67 |
60 |
-7 |
16 |
13 |
-3 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-14 |
92 |
85 |
-7 |
65 |
63 |
-2 |
17 |
10 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-13 |
92 |
86 |
-6 |
62 |
63 |
1 |
21 |
17 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-12 |
91 |
87 |
-4 |
61 |
61 |
0 |
19 |
14 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-11 |
90 |
84 |
-6 |
60 |
61 |
1 |
12 |
8 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-10 |
91 |
86 |
-5 |
56 |
59 |
3 |
16 |
8 |
-8 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-09 |
87 |
85 |
-2 |
56 |
54 |
-2 |
16 |
11 |
-5 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-08 |
79 |
79 |
0 |
44 |
41 |
-3 |
14 |
7 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-07 |
74 |
72 |
-2 |
39 |
39 |
0 |
15 |
9 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-06 |
61 |
60 |
-1 |
45 |
42 |
-3 |
23 |
19 |
-4 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-05 |
76 |
68 |
-8 |
51 |
51 |
0 |
26 |
17 |
-9 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-04 |
91 |
81 |
-10 |
71 |
64 |
-7 |
21 |
11 |
-10 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-04-03 |
93 |
88 |
-5 |
74 |
71 |
-3 |
22 |
11 |
-11 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-02 |
88 |
88 |
0 |
74 |
71 |
-3 |
21 |
14 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-04-01 |
87 |
82 |
-5 |
65 |
56 |
-9 |
23 |
16 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2025-03-31 |
87 |
84 |
-3 |
66 |
59 |
-7 |
14 |
10 |
-4 |
0.33 |
0.00 |
-0.33 |
| 2025-03-30 |
82 |
83 |
1 |
69 |
67 |
-2 |
14 |
7 |
-7 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-03-29 |
89 |
86 |
-3 |
67 |
63 |
-4 |
17 |
11 |
-6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.00 |
| 2025-03-28 |
78 |
71 |
-7 |
64 |
60 |
-4 |
14 |
6 |
-8 |
0.05 |
0.25 |
0.20 |
| 2025-03-27 |
69 |
70 |
1 |
63 |
64 |
1 |
14 |
13 |
-1 |
0.43 |
1.05 |
0.62 |
| 2025-03-26 |
83 |
83 |
0 |
64 |
62 |
-2 |
27 |
11 |
-16 |
0.81 |
0.75 |
-0.06 |
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This page was last updated: 2025-04-25 07:00 AM Central