KMFR | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification

KMFR | Last 30 Days Guidance Verification

Mean Absolute Error (2025-02-04 to 2025-03-05) NBM GFS NAM Climo
High (F) 3 3 3 7
Low (F) 3 2 3 5
Max Wind (kt) 6 5 5 -
Precipitation (in) 0.08 0.12 0.09 0.12
AE = Absolute value of Forecast - Obs; Lower values = a more accurate forecast overall
Mean Bias (2025-02-04 to 2025-03-05) NBM GFS NAM Climo
High (F) -2 -1 -1 2
Low (F) -1 0 0 0
Max Wind (kt) -5 -4 -5 -
Precipitation (in) -0.04 0.11 0.05 -0.03
Bias = Forecast - Obs
Positive values: Forecast too high; Negative values: Forecast too low
Adjust by subtracting forecast - error
Yesterday (2025-03-05) Obs NBM GFS NAM Climo
High (F) 57 -4 -6 -2 1
Low (F) 44 -7 -6 -10 -8
Max Wind (kt) 13 -6 -7 -7 -
Precipitation (in) 0.00 0.01 0.10 -0.00 0.06

NBM Source Data
Date High Obs (F) High NBM (F) High Error (F) Low Obs (F) Low NBM (F) Low Error (F) Max Wind Obs (kt) Max Wind NBM (kt) Max Wind Error (kt) Precip Obs (in) Precip NBM (in) Precip Error (in)
2025-03-05 57 53 -4 44 37 -7 13 7 -6 0.00 0.01 0.01
2025-03-04 NaN 53 NaN NaN 39 NaN NaN 3 NaN nan 0.03 nan
2025-03-03 56 52 -4 40 39 -1 9 3 -6 0.01 0.00 -0.01
2025-03-02 54 50 -4 43 41 -2 15 6 -9 0.49 0.39 -0.10
2025-03-01 66 65 -1 36 37 1 20 6 -14 0.10 0.00 -0.10
2025-02-28 73 69 -4 35 36 1 8 1 -7 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-27 71 68 -3 33 35 2 7 2 -5 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-26 67 64 -3 31 32 1 5 3 -2 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-25 57 55 -2 38 39 1 10 7 -3 0.00 0.01 0.01
2025-02-24 63 59 -4 44 45 1 19 15 -4 0.13 0.06 -0.07
2025-02-23 65 60 -5 49 48 -1 18 10 -8 0.85 0.16 -0.69
2025-02-22 56 59 3 35 38 3 7 5 -2 0.01 0.04 0.03
2025-02-21 57 56 -1 30 32 2 6 2 -4 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-20 53 51 -2 36 33 -3 7 1 -6 0.00 0.00 -0.00
2025-02-19 50 51 1 40 41 1 9 8 -1 0.38 0.11 -0.27
2025-02-18 49 50 1 35 34 -1 11 4 -7 0.01 0.00 -0.01
2025-02-17 52 48 -4 41 39 -2 6 5 -1 0.00 0.04 0.04
2025-02-16 53 50 -3 34 39 5 7 5 -2 0.11 0.09 -0.02
2025-02-15 50 47 -3 30 29 -1 8 3 -5 0.00 0.00 -0.00
2025-02-14 50 44 -6 32 35 3 17 6 -11 0.01 0.12 0.11
2025-02-13 56 50 -6 37 32 -5 23 9 -14 0.02 0.15 0.13
2025-02-12 43 43 0 20 16 -4 8 9 1 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-11 44 40 -4 23 20 -3 14 4 -10 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-10 43 39 -4 26 21 -5 7 1 -6 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-09 44 39 -5 28 23 -5 9 2 -7 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-08 44 40 -4 27 23 -4 7 2 -5 0.00 0.00 -0.00
2025-02-07 43 39 -4 30 28 -2 8 3 -5 0.02 0.25 0.23
2025-02-06 36 40 4 33 29 -4 6 1 -5 0.38 0.07 -0.31
2025-02-05 41 40 -1 26 22 -4 6 5 -1 0.01 0.07 0.06
2025-02-04 34 38 4 29 29 0 6 1 -5 0.30 0.04 -0.26

GFS Source Data
Date High Obs (F) High GFS (F) High Error (F) Low Obs (F) Low GFS (F) Low Error (F) Max Wind Obs (kt) Max Wind GFS (kt) Max Wind Error (kt) Precip Obs (in) Precip GFS (in) Precip Error (in)
2025-03-05 57 51 -6 44 38 -6 13 6 -7 0.00 0.10 0.10
2025-03-04 NaN 54 NaN NaN 38 NaN NaN 4 NaN nan 0.05 nan
2025-03-03 56 51 -5 40 40 0 9 5 -4 0.01 0.00 -0.01
2025-03-02 54 49 -5 43 40 -3 15 7 -8 0.49 0.55 0.06
2025-03-01 66 61 -5 36 36 0 20 5 -15 0.10 0.05 -0.05
2025-02-28 73 69 -4 35 34 -1 8 3 -5 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-27 71 69 -2 33 33 0 7 3 -4 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-26 67 64 -3 31 31 0 5 5 -0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-25 57 58 1 38 39 1 10 9 -1 0.00 0.05 0.05
2025-02-24 63 61 -2 44 47 3 19 21 2 0.13 0.30 0.17
2025-02-23 65 59 -6 49 47 -2 18 6 -12 0.85 1.75 0.90
2025-02-22 56 58 2 35 37 2 7 4 -3 0.01 0.05 0.04
2025-02-21 57 55 -2 30 33 3 6 2 -4 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-20 53 50 -3 36 35 -1 7 3 -4 0.00 0.00 -0.00
2025-02-19 50 53 3 40 41 1 9 13 4 0.38 0.45 0.07
2025-02-18 49 45 -4 35 37 2 11 4 -7 0.01 0.05 0.04
2025-02-17 52 48 -4 41 40 -1 6 3 -3 0.00 0.20 0.20
2025-02-16 53 51 -2 34 39 5 7 5 -2 0.11 0.20 0.09
2025-02-15 50 47 -3 30 31 1 8 3 -5 0.00 0.00 -0.00
2025-02-14 50 47 -3 32 37 5 17 6 -11 0.01 0.45 0.44
2025-02-13 56 54 -2 37 32 -5 23 12 -11 0.02 0.35 0.33
2025-02-12 43 43 0 20 18 -2 8 11 3 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-11 44 42 -2 23 23 0 14 5 -9 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-10 43 42 -1 26 22 -4 7 3 -4 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-09 44 43 -1 28 24 -4 9 3 -6 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-08 44 44 0 27 27 0 7 3 -4 0.00 0.05 0.05
2025-02-07 43 43 0 30 33 3 8 4 -4 0.02 0.15 0.13
2025-02-06 36 43 7 33 31 -2 6 6 -0 0.38 0.25 -0.13
2025-02-05 41 46 5 26 29 3 6 8 2 0.01 0.50 0.49
2025-02-04 34 43 9 29 34 5 6 7 1 0.30 0.55 0.25

NAM Source Data
Date High Obs (F) High NAM (F) High Error (F) Low Obs (F) Low NAM (F) Low Error (F) Max Wind Obs (kt) Max Wind NAM (kt) Max Wind Error (kt) Precip Obs (in) Precip NAM (in) Precip Error (in)
2025-03-05 57 55 -2 44 34 -10 13 6 -7 0.00 0.00 -0.00
2025-03-04 NaN 55 NaN NaN 37 NaN NaN 4 NaN nan 0.05 nan
2025-03-03 56 52 -4 40 40 0 9 4 -5 0.01 0.05 0.04
2025-03-02 54 52 -2 43 40 -3 15 4 -11 0.49 0.45 -0.04
2025-03-01 66 63 -3 36 32 -4 20 5 -15 0.10 0.00 -0.10
2025-02-28 73 66 -7 35 30 -5 8 3 -5 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-27 71 68 -3 33 31 -2 7 3 -4 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-26 67 66 -1 31 30 -1 5 5 -0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-25 57 56 -1 38 40 2 10 5 -5 0.00 0.05 0.05
2025-02-24 63 63 0 44 47 3 19 13 -6 0.13 0.10 -0.03
2025-02-23 65 62 -3 49 48 -1 18 7 -11 0.85 1.60 0.75
2025-02-22 56 58 2 35 38 3 7 4 -3 0.01 0.05 0.04
2025-02-21 57 55 -2 30 32 2 6 2 -4 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-20 53 54 1 36 33 -3 7 3 -4 0.00 0.00 -0.00
2025-02-19 50 54 4 40 38 -2 9 7 -2 0.38 0.25 -0.13
2025-02-18 49 48 -1 35 38 3 11 2 -9 0.01 0.05 0.04
2025-02-17 52 50 -2 41 39 -2 6 5 -1 0.00 0.15 0.15
2025-02-16 53 50 -3 34 39 5 7 5 -2 0.11 0.20 0.09
2025-02-15 50 48 -2 30 33 3 8 2 -6 0.00 0.00 -0.00
2025-02-14 50 48 -2 32 38 6 17 4 -13 0.01 0.25 0.24
2025-02-13 56 52 -4 37 34 -3 23 13 -10 0.02 0.50 0.48
2025-02-12 43 47 4 20 16 -4 8 6 -2 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-11 44 46 2 23 25 2 14 4 -10 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-10 43 38 -5 26 23 -3 7 3 -4 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-09 44 45 1 28 27 -1 9 5 -4 0.00 0.00 0.00
2025-02-08 44 44 0 27 28 1 7 4 -3 0.00 0.00 -0.00
2025-02-07 43 41 -2 30 33 3 8 4 -4 0.02 0.05 0.03
2025-02-06 36 46 10 33 29 -4 6 6 -0 0.38 0.45 0.07
2025-02-05 41 41 0 26 30 4 6 8 2 0.01 0.15 0.14
2025-02-04 34 41 7 29 30 1 6 7 1 0.30 0.00 -0.30

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This page was last updated: 2025-03-06 07:00 AM Central